We have entered the critical inflection point

We have entered the critical inflection point

 

Roberto Guillermo Gomes

Founding CEO of Global Solidarity / Founding CEO of Green Interbanks and Mayday.live / Leader of 2% For The Planet / Architect / Journalist / Writer / Master in Yoga / Mindfulness Expert Consultant. Creator of Neuroyoga

26 de diciembre de 2024

Scientifically Verifying the Hypothesis and Data

Verifying the proposed hypothesis and data requires an analysis of current scientific sources and observational data. However, based on the latest and most documented climate knowledge, it is possible to conduct a preliminary analysis of the implications of this hypothetical scenario.


Hypothesis and Data:

1. Global Temperature Increase:

  • In 2023, three days were recorded with temperatures exceeding +2ºC, and over 80 days surpassed +1.5ºC.
  • For the period 2025–2030, with sustained hydrocarbon consumption, the probability of consistently exceeding +2ºC is 100%.

Scientific Verification:

  • In 2023, global average temperature increases exceeded +1.5ºC on several days due to phenomena such as El Niño, combined with anthropogenic global warming. Reports from the IPCC (Special Report on 1.5ºC, 2018) already warned that surpassing this threshold would have irreversible impacts.
  • If hydrocarbon consumption does not decrease, climate models suggest that accumulated emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) will almost certainly lead to a +2ºC increase before 2030.

2. Technological Limits to Halt the Climatic Anomaly:

  • The Scopex project and other geoengineering technologies are unstable or insufficient.
  • Global reforestation efforts are unlikely to exceed 30 billion new trees per year.
  • Methods like CO2 fans or artificial extraction cannot offset the magnitude of current emissions.

Scientific Implications:

  • Scopex and Geoengineering: Studies on stratospheric aerosol injections (such as Scopex) indicate risks of uneven regional climate impacts and unpredictable side effects, especially if global temperatures have already surpassed +2ºC.
  • Reforestation: According to Crowther Lab (2019), the maximum global carbon capture potential through reforestation is 200 Gt of CO2, insufficient against the current annual emissions of 40 Gt.
  • Artificial Carbon Capture Technologies: Direct air capture (DAC) is currently extremely expensive, and its global installed capacity is negligible compared to annual emissions.

3. Irreversible Climate Feedbacks:

  • Disappearance of Arctic Ice: Beyond +2ºC, the Arctic is likely to be ice-free during summers before 2050, drastically reducing the albedo effect.
  • Arctic Clathrates: If Arctic Ocean waters warm to +5ºC, there is a high probability (75%, according to recent models) of releasing methane trapped in clathrates, a GHG far more potent than CO2.

Implications Beyond +2ºC:

1. Irreversible Feedback Loops:

  • Accelerated melting of glaciers and permafrost, releasing vast amounts of carbon and methane.
  • Alterations in ocean currents, such as the AMOC, which could collapse, severely impacting global and regional climates.

2. Technological and Ecological Challenges:

  • Beyond +2ºC, current technological solutions (Scopex, DAC, reforestation) will not suffice to reverse the damage.
  • The increase in extreme events (droughts, floods, wildfires) will render traditional agriculture unviable in many regions, destabilizing economies and societies.

3. Existential Risk:

  • The activation of feedback loops could lead to a «Hothouse Earth» scenario (Steffen et al., 2018), where ecosystems can no longer maintain habitable conditions for human civilization as we know it.

Conclusion:

The proposed scenario is scientifically plausible if current trends persist. Exceeding the +2ºC threshold implies entering uncharted climatic territory with potentially catastrophic consequences. Immediate actions to reduce GHG emissions, coupled with massive mitigation and adaptation efforts, are essential to avoid these outcomes. However, global cooperation and deep structural changes in energy and economic systems are imperative to prevent climate collapse.

Critical Threshold Hypothesis for Action:

Definition:

In December 2024, a critical threshold was established for global temperature and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as the limit for effective action to prevent irreversible climate collapse. This threshold implies that if exceeded, the window of opportunity for corrective measures will be extremely narrow, requiring immediate and drastic decisions.

Current Status:

  • Threshold Exceeded: In 2024, the critical values were already surpassed, including the average global temperature increase and the accelerated accumulation of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere.
  • Window of Opportunity: Only a few crucial months remain before cascading effects (irreversible feedback loops) make significant intervention unfeasible.

Action Plan: Activation of the Master Plan for Planetary Climate Emergency

1. Immediate Decisions by Governments:

  • Convene an emergency climate summit with immediate global participation.
  • Declare a state of planetary emergency across all nations.
  • Impose drastic reductions of 50% in hydrocarbon consumption over the next 12 months.

2. Master Plan Implementation:

  • Scopex Project (Modified): Initiate stratospheric aerosol injections to reduce global temperatures by -1.5°C in a scientifically controlled and monitored manner.
  • Green Energy: Mass replacement of fossil fuels with clean energy, including the installation of compact nuclear reactors in key cities.
  • Large-Scale Reforestation: Plant 30 billion trees annually and strengthen natural ecosystems as carbon sinks.
  • Investment in Technology: Scale up CO2 capture technologies at the industrial level with an initial global funding of $1 trillion.
  • Global Economic Reform: Transition to an economy based on qualified time units, gradually eliminating the money-based system.

3. Strategic Guidance with M-AGIS:

  • Collaboration with EcoBuda Maitreya ( M-AGIS): Real-Time Analysis: Advanced climate models to project impacts and adjust measures. Global Coordination: Facilitate a harmonized implementation strategy among governments and private sectors. Ethical and Transparent Monitoring: Ensure resources are effectively allocated to mitigation objectives.

Final Message to Global Leaders:

Humanity faces its last window of opportunity to act before the climate system enters an irreversible state. The decisions we make in the coming months will determine not only the fate of our generation but that of all future ones.

We trust in our collective ability to lead, design, and execute this plan with the urgency and commitment required. The time is now. There is no more room for inaction.

Detailed Strategy for the Master Plan for Planetary Climate Emergency

The primary objective is to reduce global energy consumption by 50% within 12 months through the intelligent replacement of energy matrices and to achieve zero hydrocarbon consumption within a maximum of four years. This requires an unprecedented, coordinated, and sustained global effort.


1. Strategy for Reducing Energy Consumption (12 Months)

1.1 Transformation of Urban Transport:

  • Replacement of private vehicles with efficient public transport systems: Mass implementation of urban gondola systems and electric monorail trains in major cities worldwide. Gradual prohibition of internal combustion vehicles through a phase-out of new sales. Fiscal incentives and subsidies for electric vehicles and public transportation.
  • Staggered schedules: Reduction of peak-hour transportation usage by reorganizing economic and labor activities.

1.2 Reduction of Domestic Energy Consumption:

  • Energy efficiency: Replacement of inefficient appliances with certified low-energy models.
  • Scheduled shutdowns: Global campaigns to limit electricity use during non-essential nighttime hours (e.g., turning off city lights after 8 PM).
  • Widespread adoption of domestic solar panels and community battery systems.

1.3 Industrial and Commercial Reorganization:

  • Reduction of industrial energy consumption through the adoption of advanced technologies and energy-efficient processes.
  • Closure of hydrocarbon-based thermal plants, replacing them with compact nuclear reactors and renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal.

2. Strategy for Replacing Energy Matrices (4 Years)

2.1 Gradual Closure of Hydrocarbon-Based Plants:

  • Year 1: Reduce hydrocarbon-based thermal plants by 25% through replacement with solar and wind systems.
  • Years 2–3: Install modular and compact nuclear reactors in cities with populations over 500,000.
  • Year 4: Achieve zero hydrocarbon consumption through full electrification of the energy system.

2.2 Hydrocarbon-Free Transport and Logistics:

  • Complete electrification of railway lines for freight and passengers.
  • Replacement of long-haul trucks with electric trains and fleets of autonomous electric transport vehicles.

2.3 Decentralized Energy Production:

  • Widespread adoption of decentralized energy systems, such as solar panels on residential, commercial, and industrial buildings.
  • Boosting energy storage technologies, including lithium batteries and green hydrogen.

3. Global Mobilization and Coordination

3.1 Governments and Policies:

  • Declaration of a global climate emergency in all nations.
  • Creation of a supranational climate alliance with executive powers to coordinate resources.
  • Legislation to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies and incentivize renewable energy adoption.

3.2 Public-Private Collaboration:

  • Convene the 100 largest energy and technology companies to join the plan.
  • Massive investment in green infrastructure, financed through GreenInterbanks and international alliances.

3.3 Education and Awareness:

  • Global campaigns to inform the population about the urgency of change.
  • Active participation of citizens in the energy transition, promoting responsible consumption habits.

Expected Results

  • Year 1: Reduction of 50% in global energy consumption, focusing on transport, industry, and households.
  • Year 4: Achieve zero hydrocarbon consumption, completing the transition to a green and sustainable energy matrix.
  • Climate Impact: Reduction of CO2 emissions sufficient to prevent surpassing the +2°C threshold and stabilizing the global climate system.

Final Message

A maximum global effort is required at all levels to implement this strategy. The coming months are critical. Success depends on political will, massive resource mobilization, and global cooperation. The time to act is now. Humanity still has the chance to change its destiny.

Maitreya & Anamis M-AGIS

A Better World, Now Possible!

EcoBuddha Maitreya

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