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ECOBUDDHA MAITREYA: EVERYTHING IS INTERCONNECTED ON OUR PLANET; EXCEEDING 3°C IS THE BEGINNING OF THE END OF ALL KNOWN LIFE, TRIGGERING FEEDBACK LOOPS

 

Roberto Guillermo Gomes

Founding CEO of Global Solidarity / Founding CEO of Green Interbanks and Mayday.live / Leader of 2% For The Planet / Architect / Journalist / Writer / Master in Yoga / Mindfulness Expert Consultant. Creator of Neuroyoga

19 de julio de 2024

For factors related to the acceleration of global surface warming to generate significant microvariations in the rate of heat dissipation from the Earth’s core, there must be mechanisms of energy transfer and feedback that can affect the geothermal system. Although the direct impact of global warming on the Earth’s core is limited, some factors could potentially have significant indirect effects. Here are some of these factors analyzed:

1. Changes in the Structure of the Earth’s Crust:

· Deglaciation and Load Reduction: The melting of glaciers and the rise in sea levels can reduce pressure on the Earth’s crust. The release of this pressure could alter the dynamics of the mantle and crust, potentially affecting heat flow. However, these effects would be more noticeable in regions affected by melting and less in the core.

· Tectonic Activity: Changes in the mass distribution on the surface, such as glacier melting, can influence tectonic activity. Increased tectonic activity could change heat transfer patterns in the crust and mantle, although the effect on the core heat dissipation rate would be secondary and very small.

2. Alterations in Mantle Convection:

· Change in Mantle Circulation: Global warming could modify surface conditions, affecting convection in the Earth’s mantle. Mantle convection, which is responsible for transferring heat from the core to the surface, could be affected if thermal gradients change significantly. This could induce microvariations in heat dissipation, but the direct impact of global warming would be minimal.

3. Changes in the Thermal Conductivity of the Crust:

· Humidity and Rock Alteration: An increase in surface temperature could affect the humidity and alteration of rocks in the crust. This could modify the crust’s thermal conductivity and potentially influence heat transfer. Although this effect would be local and not global, it could create variations in heat dissipation in specific areas.

4. Increase in Volcanic Activity:

· Release of Volcanic Heat: An increase in volcanic activity, which could be influenced by global warming, could introduce more heat into the Earth’s surface and locally affect heat transfer in the crust. However, this additional heat has a small impact compared to the heat generated in the core.

5. Changes in the Geometry of the Crust and Mantle:

· Pressure and Thermal Expansion: Variations in pressure and thermal expansion of the crust and mantle due to global warming could, in theory, affect the dynamics of heat flow. These changes could influence how heat is transferred from the core to the surface.

6. Interaction with the Water Cycle:

· Changes in the Hydrosphere: Alterations in the water cycle, such as increased evaporation and accumulation of vapor in the atmosphere, could have indirect effects on geothermal dynamics. Although this effect is complex and multifaceted, the direct influence on the core heat dissipation rate would be minimal.

Conclusion:

Although global warming can induce changes on the surface and in the Earth’s crust that have indirect effects on the geothermal system, the direct impact on the core heat dissipation rate would be minimal and difficult to quantify. The internal mechanisms of the Earth’s system, such as mantle convection and heat production in the core, dominate the heat transfer process and have a much greater influence on heat dissipation. The effects of global warming would be more evident in surface dynamics and the atmosphere, while the impact on the core and mantle would be small and indirect.

For a more accurate assessment, advanced geophysical models that integrate these factors and consider the complex interaction between surface changes and the Earth’s internal dynamics would be needed.

To identify factors in the acceleration of global surface warming that could generate significant microvariations in the rate of heat dissipation from the Earth’s core, we must consider various geophysical and thermodynamic aspects. The following are some key factors:

1. Glacial and Ice Sheet Melting:

· Impact: The melting of glaciers and ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica can reduce pressure on the lithosphere. This phenomenon, known as «isostatic rebound,» can cause adjustments in the Earth’s crust, potentially influencing heat transfer.

· Microvariations: Changes in pressure and mass redistribution can affect mantle dynamics and potentially alter the heat dissipation rate in specific areas.

2. Sea Level Rise:

· Impact: The rise in sea level due to glacier melting and thermal expansion of water can exert additional pressure on continental shelves and ocean basins.

· Microvariations: This additional pressure can modify the thermal conductivity and heat transfer in underwater regions of the Earth’s crust.

3. Changes in Ocean Circulation:

· Impact: Ocean circulation plays a crucial role in heat distribution on the planet. Significant changes in ocean currents can alter heat distribution in the Earth’s crust and affect thermal gradients.

· Microvariations: Alterations in deep ocean currents could modify heat transfer at the interfaces between the oceanic crust and the mantle.

4. Erosion and Sedimentation:

· Impact: Accelerated erosion and sedimentation due to increased temperature and human activity can change the load on the Earth’s crust.

· Microvariations: These processes can cause local changes in pressure and crustal structure, affecting thermal conductivity and heat dissipation.

5. Volcanic and Seismic Activity:

· Impact: Global warming can influence volcanic and seismic activity. For example, the reduction in glacial pressure can trigger volcanic eruptions and earthquakes.

· Microvariations: Increases in volcanic activity can alter heat transfer from the mantle to the surface, modifying heat dissipation in volcanically active areas.

6. Methane Release:

· Impact: Global warming can release large amounts of methane trapped in permafrost and submarine methane hydrates. Methane is a potent greenhouse gas that can accelerate global warming.

· Microvariations: Methane release can contribute to changes in pressure and composition of the upper crust, affecting thermal conductivity and heat transfer.

7. Desertification and Land Use Changes:

· Impact: Desertification and land use changes, such as deforestation, can alter heat absorption and reflectance on the Earth’s surface.

· Microvariations: These changes can modify local and regional thermal gradients, affecting heat transfer in the Earth’s crust.

Conclusion:

Although surface global warming has a limited direct impact on the rate of heat dissipation from the Earth’s core, factors such as glacier melting, sea level rise, changes in ocean circulation, erosion and sedimentation, volcanic and seismic activity, methane release, and desertification and land use changes can generate significant microvariations. These factors affect the structure and dynamics of the Earth’s crust and mantle, influencing heat transfer from the Earth’s interior to the surface. For a deeper understanding, advanced geophysical studies and climate models that consider these complex interactions would be necessary.

To analyze whether significant microvariations in the heat dissipation rate of the Earth’s core can accumulate in the crust and cause the evaporation of fossil oceans, several geological and thermodynamic aspects must be considered:

1. Heat Transfer from the Earth’s Core:

The transfer of heat from the Earth’s core to the surface occurs primarily through the mantle via convection and conduction. The amount of heat reaching the crust is a very small fraction of the total heat generated in the core.

2. Thermal Conductivity and Heat Accumulation:

· Crust Conductivity: The Earth’s crust, especially the lower crust, has relatively low thermal conductivity compared to the mantle. This means that heat dissipates slowly through the crust.

· Heat Accumulation: For microvariations in the core’s heat dissipation rate to accumulate significantly in the crust, a mechanism that prevents this heat from dissipating to the surface would be required. Since the crust acts as a partial insulator, it is unlikely that heat would accumulate to levels that could cause drastic effects.

3. Fossil Oceans:

Fossil oceans are ancient bodies of water trapped in underground geological formations. Their existence depends on the stability of these formations and the absence of geothermal processes that significantly heat them.

4. Evaporation of Fossil Oceans:

· Heat Required to Evaporate Water: Evaporating water requires a significant amount of energy (latent heat of vaporization). Even if there were an increase in the core’s heat dissipation rate, the amount of energy needed to heat and evaporate large volumes of water in fossil oceans would be extremely high.

· Local Geothermal Mechanisms: Local geothermal sources, such as volcanoes and areas of seismic activity, can heat specific areas, but there is no evidence that these sources can generate sufficient heat sustainably to evaporate fossil oceans in a short period.

5. Microvariations and Their Cumulative Impact:

· Time Scale: Microvariations in the core’s heat dissipation rate are small and gradual changes. Accumulating these changes in the crust would take millions of years.

· Dissipation Efficiency: The Earth has efficient mechanisms to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and space, preventing excessive heat accumulation in the crust.

Conclusion:

It is extremely unlikely that significant microvariations in the core’s heat dissipation rate could accumulate in the crust to a point where they cause the evaporation of fossil oceans, at least for now, while global warming does not accelerate exponentially. The crust’s ability to dissipate heat, along with existing heat transfer mechanisms, prevents the accumulation of sufficient energy to evaporate large underground water bodies. Additionally, the processes regulating internal Earth heat operate on very long geological time scales, making such events even more improbable.

To confirm this hypothesis, detailed geophysical studies and high-precision modeling of heat dynamics in the Earth’s crust and mantle would be necessary. This could include heat transfer simulations and thermal data analysis of geological formations containing fossil oceans.

Analyzing a runaway warming scenario similar to the extreme greenhouse effect on Venus, where there is intense evaporation of ocean waters and an exponential increase in global average temperature, requires considering various geophysical and climatic processes. Such a scenario implies drastic changes in Earth’s conditions, with profound effects on the planet’s thermal dynamics.

1. Extreme Greenhouse Effect:

· Description: An extreme greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and water vapor, reach concentrations so high that the atmosphere rapidly heats up and retains a significant amount of heat.

· Impact on Temperature: This phenomenon can lead to an exponential increase in global average temperature, potentially raising it to levels that destabilize climatic and geophysical systems.

2. Intense Evaporation of Ocean Waters:

· Process: As global temperature increases, the additional heat causes intense evaporation of the oceans. Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas, which in turn amplifies global warming.

· Consequences: The evaporation of large volumes of water can lead to a significant decrease in sea levels and changes in ocean salinity and circulation.

3. Exponential Increase in Temperature:

· Mechanism: With the accumulation of heat in the atmosphere and Earth’s surface, the temperature increase becomes self-sustaining. Elevated temperatures can destabilize glaciers and release large amounts of greenhouse gases trapped in permafrost and methane hydrates.

· Venus-like Scenario: On Venus, this process has led to extremely high surface temperatures (around 460°C) and a dense carbon dioxide atmosphere.

4. Impact on Heat Radiation in the Crust:

· Heat Transfer: A dramatic increase in surface temperature can enhance heat transfer to the upper layers of the Earth’s crust. However, the mantle and lower crust still act as significant barriers to the direct dissipation of heat from the core.

· Heat Accumulation: Although the crust can heat up more rapidly due to elevated surface temperatures, the dissipation of core heat through the crust is a slow process regulated by the thermal conductivity of the mantle and crust.

5. Possible Rapid Evaporation of Fossil Oceans:

· Evaporation Scenario: If surface temperatures rise to extreme levels, similar to the Venus effect, heat could propagate to deeper layers of the crust. In this scenario, geological formations containing fossil oceans could heat up significantly.

· Heat Required for Evaporation: Rapid evaporation of fossil oceans would require sustained and extremely high heat transfer to these formations. Given the high latent heat of vaporization of water, very high temperatures would be needed for a prolonged period.

· Probability: Although theoretically possible, the likelihood that microvariations in the core’s heat dissipation rate would cause the rapid evaporation of fossil oceans in a runaway warming scenario is low. Most of the additional heat would first affect the atmosphere and current oceans before reaching depths sufficient to significantly impact fossil ocean formations.

Conclusion:

In a runaway warming scenario similar to the extreme greenhouse effect on Venus, global average temperatures would increase exponentially, causing intense evaporation of ocean waters and potentially raising surface temperatures to extreme levels. While this would increase heat transfer to the upper layers of the Earth’s crust, the likelihood of causing rapid evaporation of fossil oceans is low due to the thermal barrier presented by the mantle and lower crust.

However, such a scenario could have other catastrophic effects, including atmospheric destabilization, ecosystem destruction, and drastic changes in Earth’s geothermal and climatic dynamics. To fully understand these processes, advanced climate models and detailed geophysical studies considering the complex interactions between the atmosphere, surface, and Earth’s interior would be needed.

To analyze the interaction between runaway warming and increased seismic and volcanic activity, as well as its effect on the partial evaporation of fossil oceans, we need to consider several geophysical and climatic factors.

1. Runaway Warming:

Runaway warming refers to a scenario where the increase in global temperature becomes self-sustaining and exponential due to positive feedback from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and water vapor. This phenomenon can cause a series of drastic changes in Earth’s climate and geology.

2. Increase in Seismic and Volcanic Activity:

· Glacial Melting: The reduction of ice mass in regions like Greenland and Antarctica can decrease pressure on the lithosphere, causing isostatic rebound that can trigger seismic and volcanic activity.

· Sea Level Rise: The additional pressure from rising sea levels can affect subduction zones and tectonic faults, potentially increasing seismic and volcanic activity.

· Release of Underground Pressure: The redistribution of mass and heat in the Earth’s crust can release accumulated stresses, causing earthquakes and volcanic eruptions.

3. Impact of Increased Seismic and Volcanic Activity on the Evaporation of Fossil Oceans:

· Heat Transfer: Volcanic activity can release large amounts of heat and molten material to the surface and upper crust. This additional heat can locally increase temperatures and affect underground water bodies.

· Volcanism and Evaporation: Submarine volcanic eruptions and magmatic intrusions in the crust can heat subterranean water, increasing its temperature and potentially causing partial evaporation.

· Seismic Activity: Earthquakes can fracture the Earth’s crust, facilitating heat transfer to fossil oceans and allowing the release of trapped gases and vapors.

4. Partial Evaporation of Fossil Oceans:

· Necessary Conditions: Partial evaporation of fossil oceans would require a sustained and sufficient heat source to overcome the latent heat of vaporization of water.

· Localized Heating: Volcanic activity can provide a localized heat source that could significantly warm geological formations containing fossil water.

· Fracturing and Permeability: Seismic activity can increase rock permeability, allowing greater heat and fluid transfer to fossil oceans.

Conclusion:

In a runaway warming scenario, it is likely that seismic and volcanic activity would increase due to changes in pressure on the lithosphere and heat redistribution. This increased activity could theoretically affect fossil oceans in the following ways:

1. Localized Heating: Volcanic activity could provide a heat source that increases the temperature of geological formations containing fossil water, leading to possible partial evaporation.

2. Fracturing and Heat Transfer: Earthquakes could fracture the Earth’s crust, facilitating heat transfer to fossil oceans and allowing the release of gases and vapors.

However, the complete or rapid evaporation of fossil oceans would require extreme and sustained heat conditions, which are less likely in the short term. The interaction between runaway warming and geothermal activity is complex and multifaceted, and would require detailed studies and advanced geophysical models to fully understand these dynamics and their potential impacts.

To determine the critical average global temperature that the planet must reach in a runaway warming scenario to vaporize fossil oceans completely or partially, and to understand the consequences of such evaporation, we need to consider several geophysical and thermodynamic aspects.

Critical Temperature for the Evaporation of Fossil Oceans:

1. Water Evaporation:

· Latent Heat of Vaporization: The amount of energy required to vaporize water is considerably high due to the latent heat of vaporization. To vaporize water, the temperature must reach at least 100°C (212°F) at sea level, but in underground geological formations, the pressure is higher, which raises the boiling point.

2. Global Temperature:

· Extreme Warming Scenario: To reach temperatures sufficient to vaporize fossil oceans, the global average temperature would have to increase significantly, possibly exceeding 200°C (392°F) on the surface to deeply affect underground formations due to heat transfer through the crust.

Consequences of the Evaporation of Fossil Oceans:

1. Increase in Intraplate Pressure:

· Additional Vapor Pressure: The evaporation of water trapped in underground geological formations would generate high-pressure vapor. This additional vapor would increase intraplate pressure, which could destabilize the lithosphere.

· Seismic and Volcanic Activity: The increase in pressure could trigger greater seismic and volcanic activity. Crustal fractures could allow the release of vapor and gases, increasing the risk of eruptions and earthquakes.

2. Release of Trapped Gases:

· Greenhouse Gases: The release of trapped gases, such as methane and carbon dioxide, would further contribute to global warming, creating a positive feedback loop that exacerbates warming.

3. Impact on the Earth’s Surface:

· Geological Destabilization: The increase in pressure and geothermal activity could destabilize the Earth’s surface, causing landslides, subsidence, and other extreme geological phenomena.

· Environmental and Human Impact: The release of large amounts of vapor and gases could have devastating effects on the environment and human life, including ecosystem destruction, biodiversity loss, and adverse health effects.

Conclusion:

To vaporize fossil oceans completely or partially in a runaway warming scenario, the global average temperature would have to increase to extremely high levels, possibly exceeding 200°C. This temperature increase would cause the generation of high-pressure vapor in underground geological formations, which would increase intraplate pressure and could trigger greater seismic and volcanic activity. The consequences would be catastrophic, with the destabilization of the Earth’s surface, the release of greenhouse gases, and devastating effects on the environment and human life

To analyze the threshold of average global temperature beyond which the cycle of ocean water evaporation increases in a sustained exponential manner, it is important to understand the dynamics of evaporation and how temperature influences this process. Here are the key factors and the estimation of the temperature threshold:

Key Factors:

1. Evaporation and Temperature:

· Clausius-Clapeyron Law: The relationship between temperature and the vapor pressure of a liquid is described by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, which shows that vapor pressure increases exponentially with temperature.

· Effect on Evaporation: As the temperature of the air and surface water increases, the air’s capacity to retain water vapor also increases exponentially, accelerating the evaporation rate.

2. Positive Feedback:

· Water Vapor as a Greenhouse Gas: Water vapor is a potent greenhouse gas. An increase in evaporation raises the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere, which in turn retains more heat and accelerates global warming.

· Feedback Loop: This process creates a positive feedback loop, where rising temperatures cause more evaporation, which in turn causes further warming.

3. Climate Models:

· Models and Predictions: Climate models indicate that as global average temperature increases, certain critical thresholds are reached where feedback effects become more pronounced and sustained.

Temperature Threshold:

· Current Estimates:

o 1.5°C to 2°C: Reports from the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) indicate that an increase in global average temperature between 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels can already cause significant changes in evaporation and precipitation patterns.

o 3°C to 4°C: An increase in global average temperature between 3°C and 4°C is considered a critical threshold where positive feedback effects, such as increased evaporation and amplified warming due to water vapor, can become sustained and exponential.

Consequences of the Threshold:

1. Increase in Evaporation:

· Higher Temperatures: With global average temperatures in the range of 3°C to 4°C above pre-industrial levels, the ocean evaporation rate increases significantly.

· Greater Atmospheric Humidity: The increased amount of water vapor in the atmosphere contributes to more cloud cover and can intensify extreme weather events, such as storms and heavy rainfall.

2. Feedback Loop:

· Accelerated Warming: The higher concentration of water vapor amplifies the greenhouse effect, causing additional warming. This cycle can become sustained and exponential, leading to rapid and continuous temperature increases.

3. Global Impacts:

· Extreme Weather Events: The increase in evaporation and atmospheric humidity can lead to a higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, floods, and droughts.

· Impact on Ecosystems and Societies: These changes will have profound impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, water supply, and human life in general.

Conclusion:

The threshold of average global temperature at which the cycle of ocean water evaporation increases in a sustained exponential manner is estimated to be in the range of 3°C to 4°C above pre-industrial levels. Reaching or exceeding this threshold can trigger a positive feedback loop where global warming accelerates due to increased water vapor concentration in the atmosphere, leading to severe and sustained climatic consequences.

In December 2023, the planet surpassed 2°C of global warming, and we are on track to exceed 3°C due to the continued increase in hydrocarbon consumption. To prevent the sixth mass extinction and the possible extinction of all humanity, immediate and drastic measures must be taken globally. Here are some key recommendations:

Immediate Measures to Prevent the Sixth Mass Extinction

1. Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions:

· Transition to Renewable Energies: Accelerate the transition to renewable energies such as solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal. Governments should provide economic incentives for adopting these technologies.

· Decarbonization of Industry: Implement carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies in heavy industries and promote the electrification of industrial processes.

· Reduction in Hydrocarbon Use: Implement policies to significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels, including carbon taxes, the elimination of fossil fuel subsidies, and the promotion of energy efficiency.

2. Protection and Restoration of Ecosystems:

· Reforestation and Forest Restoration: Initiate massive reforestation and forest restoration projects to increase carbon sequestration and protect biodiversity.

· Protection of Natural Areas: Establish and expand protected terrestrial and marine areas to conserve critical habitats and endangered species.

· Soil Regeneration: Promote sustainable agricultural practices that regenerate soils and increase their capacity to store carbon.

3. Land Use Change and Sustainable Agriculture:

· Regenerative Agriculture: Encourage regenerative agriculture that improves soil health, increases biodiversity, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.

· Reduction of Food Waste: Implement policies to reduce food waste throughout the supply chain, from production to consumption.

· Plant-Based Diets: Promote more sustainable diets, with a greater focus on plant-based foods and reduced consumption of animal products.

4. Innovation and Green Technologies:

· Research and Development: Increase investment in research and development of clean technologies and innovative solutions to mitigate climate change.

· Sustainable Transport: Encourage the use of electric vehicles, efficient public transportation, and active mobility (biking, walking) to reduce emissions from the transportation sector.

5. International Policies and Agreements:

· Global Commitments: Strengthen international commitments, such as the Paris Agreement, and ensure all countries implement ambitious and verifiable actions to reduce emissions.

· International Cooperation: Promote international cooperation to transfer clean technologies and support developing countries in their transition to low-carbon economies.

6. Education and Awareness:

· Public Awareness: Implement public awareness campaigns to educate people about the importance of climate action and how they can contribute individually.

· Educational Initiatives: Integrate environmental and climate education into school and university curricula to prepare future generations for sustainability.

Conclusion:

To prevent the sixth mass extinction and the possible extinction of humanity, it is crucial to implement immediate and drastic measures globally. The combination of emission reductions, ecosystem protection, technological innovation, strong international policies, and public education can help mitigate the effects of climate change and ensure a sustainable future for all life forms on Earth.

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