Dubai on the Brink: The Simultaneous Collapse of Oil, Real Estate, and Climate Will Drag the Gulf into Irreversible Disaster by 2028
Roberto Guillermo Gomes
Founding CEO of Global Solidarity / Founding CEO of Green Interbanks and Mayday.live / Leader of 2% For The Planet / Architect / Journalist / Writer / Master in Yoga / Mindfulness Expert Consultant. Creator of Neuroyoga
12 de octubre de 2024
The specific cost of COP28, held in Dubai, has not been disclosed publicly. However, the event is regarded as the largest of its kind, attracting approximately 85,000 participants, including over 150 heads of state and delegation leaders from across the globe.
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Given the scale of the event, it is likely that the cost surpassed that of COP15 in Copenhagen, which was estimated at $1 billion. The infrastructure at Expo City Dubai and the logistics required to host such a vast number of delegations would have necessitated a significant investment
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The COP28 president, Sultan Al Jaber, holds a direct connection to the oil industry as CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). His appointment raised international criticism due to the conflict of interest inherent in leading a major fossil fuel company while chairing a summit aimed at reducing carbon emissions
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This controversy highlights the contradiction within COP28: while official speeches and commitments focused on transitioning toward renewable energy, actions such as the UAE’s plan to expand oil production to 5 million barrels per day by 2027 undermine these efforts. This strategy reflects the economic pressure on fossil-fuel producers to maintain influence despite the growing global push toward decarbonization
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The Gulf’s Extractive Pressure and Infrastructural Dependency
The intensified oil production in Gulf countries, including the UAE, aligns with their ambitious infrastructural projects and luxury-based economic model. Cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi, along with megaprojects like NEOM in Saudi Arabia, require substantial capital, making continued reliance on petroleum revenues crucial.
Key Drivers of Extractive Pressure:
1. Capital-Intensive Infrastructure Projects: Gulf countries depend heavily on oil and gas revenues to fund initiatives in tourism, technology, and entertainment. These projects, including Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030, face financial pressure without alternative sources of income
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2. Lobbying for Global Oil Demand: Rather than reducing production, Gulf countries have launched lobbying campaigns to slow international policies targeting fossil fuel dependency, helping maintain stable prices and revenues despite the global energy transition
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3. Luxury Consumption and Oil Dependence: The region’s lifestyle—marked by iconic buildings, extravagant resorts, and intense consumerism—relies on consistent oil revenues to sustain the luxury economy, creating a feedback loop that exacerbates environmental degradation
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Legal and Environmental Fallout: An Imminent Collapse
The situation becomes even more precarious when considering the risk of rising sea levels. Coastal real estate investments in Dubai could become worthless as properties face inevitable flooding. Investors may sue governments for selling them high-risk properties without disclosing the environmental threats, leading to unprecedented litigation under international investment laws
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Conclusion: An Irreversible Sequence
The convergence of desertification, economic collapse due to stranded oil assets, and the destruction of real estate from rising seas presents an irreversible trajectory for the Gulf. The climate tipping point, projected between 2025 and 2028, will accelerate this process. Governments in the region are running out of time to pivot their economies. The looming crisis underscores the need for urgent action, but the window for a smooth transition is closing rapidly
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Environmental Costs and Catastrophic Risks
The Gulf countries, despite promoting renewable energy initiatives such as Masdar, continue to expand fossil fuel production, undermining global climate efforts. The carbon emissions from these industries contribute directly to global warming, worsening the region’s vulnerabilities to rising temperatures and water scarcity. This dual approach—pursuing both fossil fuel expansion and renewables—reveals a contradiction in their climate strategy
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Analysis of the Collapse of Hydrocarbon-Based Economies in the Face of the Climate Crisis
1. Expansion of the Sahara and Desertification in the Arabian Peninsula
Global warming exacerbates desertification, making the Gulf region increasingly uninhabitable. Heat waves, droughts, and biodiversity loss threaten agriculture and human settlements, accelerating the transformation of the Arabian Peninsula into a desert wasteland
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2. Climate Tipping Point: 2025-2028
Scientific reports warn that exceeding 2°C to 3°C of global warming will trigger catastrophic feedback loops, including the thawing of permafrost, which releases vast amounts of greenhouse gases. This tipping point may result in accelerated sea level rise and the collapse of key ecosystems
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3. Collapse of the Oil Industry and Economic Downfall
The global shift toward decarbonization will significantly reduce fossil fuel demand, rendering petroleum reserves as stranded assets. This loss in demand will not only cripple oil revenues but also destabilize oil-reliant economies like those of the Gulf states
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4. Impact on Real Estate and Financial Investments
The rising sea levels will devastate coastal cities like Dubai, wiping out real estate and tourism investments. This will have a severe ripple effect on regional financial markets, leading to a devaluation of properties and significant economic losses
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Logical Sequence of Collapse
1. Desertification: Expanding deserts limit habitable areas and non-oil economic activities.
2. Loss of Oil Revenues: Global decarbonization causes a sharp decline in hydrocarbon consumption.
3. Real Estate Collapse: Rising seas destroy infrastructure and devalue coastal properties.
4. Financial and Social Collapse: Without oil revenues or real estate value, the Gulf economies face recession, mass unemployment, and social unrest
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Legal Implications: Investor Lawsuits for Environmental Negligence
Investors in real estate could file lawsuits against Gulf governments for selling properties in high-risk areas without disclosing the environmental threats. Given the region’s role in accelerating climate change through fossil fuel production, these cases could leverage international legal frameworks, including bilateral investment treaties, to seek compensation for stranded investments
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Conclusion: An Irreversible Trajectory
The Gulf economies are on a perilous path. The looming climate tipping point between 2025 and 2028 makes it increasingly difficult to pivot toward sustainable economic models. If the cycle of fossil fuel dependence and speculative real estate investments continues, the environmental and economic collapse will follow a logical and inevitable sequence
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Conclusion: An Inevitable Future
The scenario outlined points toward an almost unavoidable outcome under current political and economic conditions. Although Gulf countries are delaying the energy transition, the impacts of climate change are already underway. Without swift diversification of their economies and a reduction in oil dependency, these nations will face a comprehensive collapse in the coming decades. The opportunity for an orderly transition is closing rapidly, with the next few years being critical to averting the worst outcomes
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Legal Implications of Coastal Real Estate Sales
Massive lawsuits against Gulf governments could emerge, rooted in the sale of real estate in areas exposed to sea-level rise—a consequence accelerated by the region’s fossil fuel production. The combination of coastal investments and intensive hydrocarbon extraction creates a conflict of interest that exposes these governments to international investor claims
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Potential Legal Arguments
1. Asymmetric Information and Misrepresentation
o Governments promoting real estate investments in flood-prone areas could face lawsuits for failing to disclose future risks. Many legal systems mandate transparency regarding environmental threats in property sales
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2. Violation of the ‘Polluter Pays’ Principle
o Oil-producing states may be held liable for environmental degradation caused by their fossil fuel activities, with potential claims for both environmental damage and lost property values
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3. Stranded Asset Lawsuits
o Investors could argue that governments trapped their assets in devalued properties. Many of these assets are leveraged by financial instruments, posing risks to the global financial system if property values plummet
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4. International Investor Litigation (Bilateral Investment Treaties)
o Treaties with foreign nations often protect investors from unjust losses. Governments in the Gulf could face demands for compensation if their energy policies destroy the value of international investments
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Consequences of Legal Action
1. Economic Crisis in the Gulf
o Mass investor lawsuits could lead to a fiscal crisis, forcing economic restructuring and damaging sovereign debt and investment attraction.
2. Increased Pressure to Reduce Oil Production
o Lawsuits would intensify international pressure on Gulf states to accelerate the energy transition, reinforcing global regulatory focus on climate risk mitigation.
3. Impact on the Global Real Estate Sector
o Property devaluation in Dubai and other coastal cities would ripple through global markets, impacting sovereign wealth funds and investment portfolios tied to real estate
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Conclusion
These potential lawsuits portend a sequential and irreversible collapse of Gulf economies, driven by oil dependency and speculative real estate investments vulnerable to climate change. Legal actions stemming from devalued coastal properties could set new precedents in international law, intertwining environmental and financial collapse. The window for mitigation is narrow, with the climate tipping point forecasted between 2025 and 2028, leaving little room to reverse the deteriorating trajectory
.EcoBuddha Maitreya, World Leader in the Fight against Global Warming
Fight Against Global Warming – Global Coordination Center
«If there is someone more intelligent, strategic, visionary, effective, and incorruptible than I am to lead the planet toward ending hunger, extreme poverty, global warming, and achieving world peace, I am willing to step down and follow them. But if no one is better prepared, then join me. This is our last chance to save the world.» EcoBuddha Maitreya
A Better World, Now Possible!
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