CAN THE OCEANS BECOME CARBON EMITTERS SOON?

16 agosto, 2025

CAN THE OCEANS BECOME CARBON EMITTERS SOON?

Roberto Guillermo Gomes

Founding CEO of Global Solidarity / Founding CEO of Green Interbanks and Mayday.live / Leader of 2% For The Planet / Architect / Journalist / Writer / Master in Yoga / Mindfulness Expert Consultant. Creator of Neuroyoga

2 de octubre de 2024

Introduction Given the acceleration of global warming, this article examines the potential risks that the planet’s oceans, which have until now acted as carbon sinks, could become net emitters of CO2. This phenomenon could intensify climate change and push us toward a point of no return in the coming years.

Scientific Study of Accelerated Global Warming The acceleration of global warming demands immediate action. The proposal is to conduct scientific studies that project and refine future impacts to enable the adoption of global mitigation measures. The scientific community, especially NASA teams, is invited to participate in this project.

Urgency and Priority It is crucial to establish a clear timeline of events. Currently, we know that global warming is in an acceleration phase. The uncertainty lies in determining precisely how many years we have left before surpassing critical thresholds, such as the permanent 1.5º C increase.

Projected Impacts

Prolonged droughts could destroy continental crops and trigger massive famines.
A 1.5º C increase in five years could intensify extreme weather events.

Key Scientific Hypotheses

Hypothesis A: The Cork Effect (1992) The melting of glaciers in Antarctica will release seismic energy accumulated over millions of years. This could cause fissures in tectonic plates and activate volcanic activity in the region, accelerating global warming.
Hypothesis B: «Bang» Moments The ecosystem acts as an inertial regulator of phase changes. Once a critical point is reached, the system shifts abruptly, causing accelerated warming.
Hypothesis C: Lower Crust Reheating The warming of the oceans could increase the temperature in the Earth’s lower crust, leading to the vaporization of fossil oceans and triggering massive tectonic pressures.
Hypothesis D: Maximum Greenhouse Effect The accelerated melting of the North Pole and Greenland could release large amounts of methane, causing a sudden rise in global temperatures, leading us toward conditions similar to those on Venus.
Hypothesis E: Catastrophic Sequence Starting in 2024, the melting of the Thwaites Glacier and the release of methane clathrates in Siberia will intensify global warming and could lead us to climate collapse by the 2030s.
Hypothesis F: Oceans as CO2 Emitters The oceans, which currently absorb 50% of emitted CO2, could reverse their role and become carbon emitters, accelerating global warming.

Global Impact of Ocean Warming The rise in ocean temperatures has several catastrophic effects:

Release of Methane Clathrates: This phenomenon could raise temperatures at the poles up to 12º C.
Positive Feedback Loops: The release of water vapor and CO2 could create an uncontrolled greenhouse effect.
Rising Sea Levels: The melting of Greenland and Antarctica is expected to cause sea levels to rise by several meters.

Proposal: Dynamic Climate Map with AI Through cooperation with NASA and the interconnection of quantum computers, the creation of a dynamic global climate map is suggested. This map would predict the upcoming climate tipping points and design global countermeasures.

Introduction In light of the accelerating global warming, this article addresses the imminent risks that the oceans, which have until now acted as carbon sinks, could become net emitters of CO2. This phenomenon could amplify climate change and push the planet toward an irreversible environmental crisis in the near future. Additionally, a detailed analysis is provided on the potential impact of Antarctic ice melt, which could release massive amounts of energy, triggering a catastrophic sequence of seismic and volcanic events on a global scale.

Scientific Study of Accelerated Global Warming Given the accelerated pace of global warming, immediate action is essential. A comprehensive scientific study is proposed to project and gather precise data on future impacts, enabling global mitigation measures. It is urgent to mobilize the scientific community, particularly NASA teams, to investigate this phenomenon.

Urgency and Priority Global warming has entered an accelerated phase, and long-term projections may underestimate the speed at which catastrophic changes could occur. For instance, a 1.5º C increase in the next five years could trigger extreme climate phenomena, such as mass droughts that would threaten global food security.

Potential Energy from Antarctic Melting and Its Seismic Impact It is estimated that Antarctica contains approximately 27 million gigatons of ice. If this ice were to melt abruptly, it would release a colossal amount of energy. This energy is calculated to be 31.6 million megatons of TNT. To put this into perspective, the most powerful bomb ever detonated, the «Tsar Bomba,» released 50 megatons of energy. Such abrupt melting would have a devastating impact on the planet’s geological stability.

Mechanism of Energy Release and Global Effects

Energy Release by Tectonic Uplift: The melting of Antarctic glaciers would release the mass currently compressing the Antarctic tectonic plate. This uplift, caused by the reduction in ice pressure, would generate tensile forces in the Antarctic plate, transforming into large-scale seismic waves.
Compression and Seismic Propagation: These tensile forces from the plate uplift would exert compressive pressure on neighboring tectonic plates, propagating resonant seismic waves across the planet. This phenomenon would not only trigger large-magnitude earthquakes worldwide but could also activate intense volcanic activity, especially in subduction zones and areas already under significant tectonic stress, such as the Pacific Ring of Fire.
Prediction of Volcanic Effects: The release of tectonic stresses and the uplift of the Antarctic plate could activate dormant volcanic systems, not only in Antarctica but in other parts of the world. Increased volcanic activity, coupled with the release of greenhouse gases like sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and CO₂, could further raise global temperatures.

Global Projections

Global Earthquakes and Intense Volcanism: The energy released from Antarctic melting would not only trigger seismic activity in Antarctica, but the seismic resonance would spread globally, activating volcanoes and increasing seismic activity in highly vulnerable areas.
Global Sea-Level Rise: The melting of Greenland and Antarctica is projected to raise sea levels by up to 10 meters, which would have devastating effects on coastal areas, displacing millions of people.
Methane Clathrate Release: Ocean warming could release large amounts of methane trapped in submarine clathrates, which would further accelerate climate change.

Proposal: Dynamic Climate Map with AI The creation of a dynamic global climate map using artificial intelligence and quantum computers is proposed to predict climate tipping points and their impacts. This system would anticipate extreme phenomena such as droughts, hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic eruptions, providing governments with a tool to implement large-scale mitigation measures.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Immediate Scientific Collaboration: The scientific community is urged to collaborate on creating advanced computational models to simulate interactions between oceans, poles, atmosphere, and magma.
Urgent Political Action: The international community must take immediate measures to reduce carbon emissions. Time is limited; if no action is taken by 2025, the positive feedback loops of global warming will become irreversible.
Development of the SCOPEX Project: Reducing global temperatures by 1.5º C through controlled geoengineering is key. The window of opportunity to do this safely will close soon (by the end of December 2024).
Total weight of Antarctic glaciers is estimated at approximately 27 million gigatons. The potential energy released by 27 million gigatons of Antarctic ice mass, assuming abrupt melting, is estimated to be around 31.6 million megatons of TNT. This amount of energy is immense and sufficient to trigger seismic and volcanic effects on a planetary scale.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Immediate Scientific Action: A detailed study of the geophysical effects of Antarctic melting and its impact on global tectonic plates must be initiated. International collaboration is essential to model future scenarios.
Urgent Political Measures: Governments must act immediately to reduce carbon emissions. If drastic action is not taken before 2025, the positive feedback loops of global warming will accelerate irreversibly.
Implementation of Project SCOPEX: Reducing global temperatures through controlled geoengineering is crucial before positive feedback loops become unstoppable.

This analysis highlights the extreme danger of abrupt Antarctic ice melt and its capacity to trigger global seismic and volcanic events, compounded by the potential transformation of the oceans into net CO₂ emitters. The window to prevent a planetary catastrophe is rapidly closing.

Evaluation of the Rationality of the Data

Amount of Energy Released by Abrupt Ice Melt: The estimate of 31.6 million megatons of TNT due to the melting of glaciers in Antarctica seems plausible from a physical standpoint, as the calculations are based on the total mass of accumulated ice and its gravitational potential energy. However, the assumption of an «abrupt» large-scale melt within a short period (less than five years) requires more detailed analysis. Such massive melting would only occur under extreme and accelerated climate conditions, which, although possible under extreme global warming scenarios, have not yet been observed on the proposed timeline.
Geological Impact: The idea that Antarctic melting would trigger a series of tensile and compressive forces on the Antarctic tectonic plate, generating resonant seismic waves across the planet, is theoretically feasible. This phenomenon has been observed on a smaller scale in Greenland, where melting has caused minor seismic movements. However, extrapolating this to global seismic resonance requires more advanced geophysical models that account for variables such as the structural resilience of the Antarctic plate and its interaction with other tectonic plates.
Intense Volcanism: Volcanism induced by the release of tectonic pressure is a real possibility. We know that a decrease in glacial load can alter volcanic activity, a process documented in Iceland and other glaciated areas. However, for a significant increase in volcanism to occur on a global scale, the release of pressure would need to be much more localized and rapid than previously observed. Still, the risk of volcanism in sensitive zones like the Ring of Fire is a valid concern.
Oceans Becoming Net CO₂ Emitters: The oceans have historically acted as carbon sinks, but recent studies confirm that rising ocean temperatures are reducing their capacity to absorb CO₂. If this critical threshold is reached, the oceans could release much of the stored CO₂, exacerbating climate change. This is consistent with current scientific projections about ocean saturation. However, the magnitude of this shift and the exact timing remain areas of ongoing research.

Personal Opinion on the Viability of the Projections The presented data largely align with what is known about climate change and its effects on geological and atmospheric systems. However, certain points require further validation through more sophisticated models. The Antarctic ice melt and its relationship to earthquakes and volcanism are theoretically possible, but would require an unprecedented acceleration of global warming. Additionally, the idea of global seismic resonance, while intriguing, needs more evidence.

Immediate Courses of Action

Given the considerable threat posed by accelerated ice melt and its seismic and climatic effects, the following steps are urgent and realistic:

Development of Advanced Geophysical Models: It is crucial to develop more accurate simulations using advanced geophysical computational models. These models should include the dynamics of Antarctic ice melt, the tectonic response of the Antarctic plate, and the global impact of pressure release on other plates. This must be a priority for the scientific community, with participation from international institutions such as NASA, NOAA, and the USGS.
Intensive Monitoring of Ice Melt and Seismic Activity: Satellite and geophysical monitoring should be increased in Antarctica, Greenland, and other sensitive areas. Instruments such as high-precision GPS and seismometers must be deployed in key areas to measure changes in seismic and volcanic activity in response to ice melt. Additionally, monitoring ocean temperature and CO₂ saturation is essential to anticipate the possible inversion of their role as carbon sinks.
Implementation of Project SCOPEX and Geoengineering Measures: Project SCOPEX, which aims to cool the Earth through geoengineering techniques, should be seriously considered. While such intervention carries risks, the rapid increase in temperatures and the possibility of surpassing critical thresholds justifies the implementation of controlled trials to reduce global temperatures in the short term.
Drastic Reduction of Carbon Emissions: Governments must adopt much more drastic measures to reduce carbon emissions. The goal of zero emissions by 2050 may be insufficient unless the pace of decarbonization is accelerated. Immediate reductions of 90% in CO₂ emissions by 2030 should be required as the minimum necessary to avoid positive feedback loops in the oceans and atmosphere.
Creation of a Global Consortium of Scientists: Given the severity of the problem, it is essential to form a global consortium of leading climate scientists, geologists, physicists, and technologists worldwide. This consortium should work together to coordinate research, share data, and recommend science-based policies.

Conclusion While some of the projections require greater scientific backing and more detailed models, the risk is clear: if Antarctic ice melt continues to accelerate, the planet could face a catastrophic scenario in terms of seismic, volcanic, and climatic consequences. Oceans may shift from being carbon sinks to emitters, exacerbating climate change irreversibly.

The time to act is limited. Science must guide political decision-making, and the international community must unite in a coordinated effort to mitigate climate impacts before it is too late.

The massive melting of 97% of Greenland’s ice surface in July 2012, caused by an exceptionally warm four-day period, is a clear indication of what sudden temperature jumps can trigger in sensitive regions. This event highlights the vulnerability of polar ice sheets to temporary temperature increases and suggests that as global warming intensifies, similar but more frequent and severe episodes could repeat, with drastic consequences for global climate balance. Let’s analyze the available data and its potential impact in the context of polar ice melt and the release of greenhouse gases.

Analysis of Greenland’s 2012 Ice Melt The ice melt observed in Greenland in 2012 marked a critical vulnerability for glaciers. Under normal conditions, 40% of the ice sheet experiences some melting during the summer, but in this case, nearly the entire surface of the ice sheet melted in just a few days, an unprecedented event. Although this phenomenon was temporary, it demonstrated how a brief period of extreme heat could severely impact the glacial system, which is worrying given the increasing trend of extreme weather events.

Impact of the 2ºC Threshold and Polar Regions A key point to consider is that the poles experience far more intense warming than the global average. While global temperatures are projected to rise by 2ºC by mid-century, the poles could be facing increases of 5 to 7ºC. This would exponentially accelerate the melting of Greenland and Antarctica, directly affecting:

Sea Level Rise: A melt event similar to 2012 but on a larger scale could significantly raise sea levels. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a 1-meter sea level rise by 2100 is increasingly likely, but if events like Greenland’s 97% melt are repeated frequently, this rise could be much faster and more severe.
Albedo Effect: The loss of ice reduces the Earth’s albedo, meaning the dark ocean absorbs more solar radiation instead of reflecting it, accelerating warming and perpetuating a positive feedback loop. This is already happening in the Arctic, and Greenland could follow the same path if global temperatures continue to rise.

Permafrost Thaw and Methane Clathrate Release The thawing of permafrost and release of methane clathrates represent one of the most serious threats related to climate change, and they are already underway in the Arctic. Rising temperatures are thawing the permafrost, releasing methane (a greenhouse gas much more potent than CO₂) trapped for thousands of years. Rapid thaw increases the risk of massive methane releases, which could further accelerate global warming. This is evidenced by the discovery of more than 500 methane chimneys in the Arctic Ocean.

Potential Impacts:

Accelerated Methane Release: With the geometric warming of polar regions, methane release is expected to multiply, generating positive feedback loops that would exponentially accelerate warming.
Climate Destabilization: The release of these gases could trigger extreme climate events and a general destabilization of the global climate system, increasing the frequency of heatwaves, wildfires, and extreme weather phenomena like hurricanes and storms.
Unexpected Climate Jumps: The massive release of methane could lead to a climate jump where global average temperatures rise suddenly, beyond the forecasts of current climate models. This could push regional temperatures much higher than expected, especially in the poles.

Projection of Catastrophic Scenarios

Geometric Increase in Melting: As global temperatures approach or exceed 2°C, the poles could experience temperature increases of 5-7°C or more, leading to a geometric acceleration in the melting of permafrost and glaciers. This would affect not only sea level rise but also global climate stability.
Activation of Positive Feedback Loops: The 500 identified methane vents in the Arctic are just the beginning. As the thaw continues, we could see a massive release of methane and other greenhouse gases, accelerating warming exponentially.
Collapse of Climate Stability: These rapid changes in the climate system could lead to the collapse of global climate stability, where feedback loops exceed any human mitigation efforts, triggering extreme events unpredictably.

Proposed Immediate Actions

Immediate Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: It is crucial for countries to agree on a drastic and immediate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Current commitments to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 are insufficient given the urgency of the climate crisis. A 90% reduction in emissions is needed by 2030 to avoid reaching points of no return.
Intensive Studies on Methane Release: Monitoring methane release in the Arctic must be increased using satellite and underwater technologies. Additionally, abrupt methane release scenarios need to be modeled to better understand its impact and prepare countermeasures.
Controlled Geoengineering: Implement geoengineering projects, such as Project SCOPEX, in a controlled and scientific manner to temporarily reduce global temperatures, buying time to mitigate the most destructive effects of climate change.
Protection and Restoration of Critical Ecosystems: Protect key areas like the Arctic, boreal forests, and tropical rainforests, which act as carbon sinks. Initiatives to restore ecosystems and forests that can help capture carbon and reduce the effects of global warming should be funded.
Development of Carbon Capture Technologies: Accelerate the research and development of technologies that capture and store atmospheric carbon on a large scale, both on land and in oceans, to mitigate the effects of CO₂ and methane release.
Global Awareness and Action Campaigns: Mobilize the global population through awareness campaigns that clearly explain the severity of the climate situation and promote individual and collective actions to reduce the carbon footprint.

Conclusion Greenland’s massive ice melt in 2012 is just an early warning of what could happen on a global scale if immediate measures are not taken. The 2ºC threshold, a critical danger point, could trigger a cascade of destructive events in the poles, releasing massive amounts of methane and accelerating glacier melt, which in turn would raise sea levels and disrupt global climate systems. The science is clear: we need to act now to avoid a catastrophic future.

If the global 2°C temperature increase threshold was breached in December 2023, we are in an extremely critical situation that demands an immediate response to avoid the catastrophic effects of climate feedback loops. From this point on, positive feedback loops will activate geometrically and exponentially, potentially accelerating global warming beyond conservative predictions, with serious consequences for the poles, permafrost, and the release of greenhouse gases like methane.

Prediction and Analysis of the Scenario of Exceeding 2°C to 3°C

The additional warming between 2°C and 3°C will disproportionately impact polar regions, where temperatures could increase between 5°C and 7°C or even more. This increase would be sufficient to drastically destabilize climatic and geological systems, triggering a cascade of positive feedback loops that will further accelerate warming.

1. Permafrost Thaw and Methane Release:

Rapid positive feedback: As temperatures rise beyond 2°C, Arctic permafrost will begin to thaw at a geometric rate, releasing large amounts of methane and CO₂. Methane is 80 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO₂ over shorter timescales, meaning that any massive methane release could quickly amplify global warming.
Submarine methane explosion: In the Arctic Ocean, where more than 500 methane chimneys have already been identified, the situation could worsen if temperatures continue to rise. The release of methane clathrates (methane hydrates frozen on the seafloor) could intensify, creating a feedback loop that raises temperatures even further and accelerates gas release.

2. Thermal Jump to 6°C – 8°C:

Accelerated warming: If positive feedback loops are massively activated, global temperatures could abruptly jump between 6°C and 8°C in both poles. This exponential acceleration would be primarily due to methane release, permafrost thaw, and reduced albedo (the poles’ ability to reflect solar radiation) as sea and land ice melt.
Increased greenhouse effect: With massive methane release and ice loss, the planet would begin to retain more solar energy, exacerbating the greenhouse effect and accelerating global warming. This process would trigger a catastrophic feedback loop similar to the effect observed on the planet Venus.

3. Evaporation of Ocean Waters and Increased Greenhouse Effect:

Ocean evaporation: With temperatures between 6°C and 8°C, massive evaporation of ocean waters would begin, increasing water vapor levels in the atmosphere. Water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas, and its rise in the atmosphere would further intensify global warming. This phenomenon would strengthen the feedback cycle, leading to even faster temperature increases.
Reduction in natural cooling: Oceans, which traditionally act as large thermal regulators and carbon sinks, would lose part of their cooling capacity due to evaporation and gas saturation. Instead of absorbing heat, they would start to release it, increasing global climate instability.

Speed of Irreversible Feedback and Consequences

Once positive feedback loops are activated, they can develop uncontrollably and rapidly. The speed of these processes will depend on several interrelated factors:

Accelerated ice melt: If we exceed 2°C, ice melt rates in Greenland and Antarctica could increase exponentially. The loss of ice in the Arctic and Antarctic will reduce the albedo, further accelerating warming in these regions. Current predictions suggest that in a 3°C to 4°C scenario, we could lose almost all Arctic ice during summers in the next two decades.
Methane release: Methane release could intensify from 2.5°C of global warming onwards, leading to a rapid increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Over 5 to 10 years, this could add several more degrees of warming.
Positive feedback chain reaction: As global warming surpasses 3°C, positive feedback loops could become irreversible. Once they start, there will be no way to stop or reverse the cycle, leading to global climate collapse. It is estimated that permafrost and clathrate gas release could increase global temperatures between 6°C and 8°C by mid or late century if drastic action is not taken.

Global Consequences of This Scenario

Sea level rise: The massive ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica could raise sea levels by several meters over the course of this century, displacing hundreds of millions of people living in coastal areas. The most extreme effects would be felt after 2050, with drastic increases in coastal flooding and loss of habitable land.
Extreme climate disasters: Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves, will become more frequent and severe. Projections indicate that, in a 4°C or higher scenario, these extreme events could occur every year in various parts of the world, with devastating consequences for agriculture, infrastructure, and human life.
Geopolitical instability: Climate collapse will trigger mass migrations due to loss of habitable land and resource scarcity, which could destabilize entire countries and regions. Competition for water, food, and habitable space could lead to large-scale armed conflicts.
Ecosystem collapse: Many of the most sensitive ecosystems, such as coral reefs, rainforests, and boreal forests, could collapse before 2050. The loss of these ecosystems would not only destroy habitats for thousands of species but also reduce the planet’s ability to capture carbon, further accelerating climate change.

Immediate Courses of Action

Urgent Carbon Emissions Reductions: Immediate and drastic reduction of global greenhouse gas emissions must be prioritized. Current policies to reduce emissions by 90% by 2030 may not be sufficient; we must aim for a 90% or more reduction by the same year and reach zero emissions well before 2032.
Global Implementation of Carbon Capture Technologies: It is crucial to invest massively in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and expand these technologies on a large scale over the next five years. Additionally, geoengineering technologies should be considered as a temporary option to cool the planet while more sustainable measures are implemented.
Protection of Permafrost and Key Ecosystems: Governments must collaborate internationally to protect critical ecosystems, such as the permafrost and rainforests, through funding for ecological restoration projects and banning activities that exacerbate thawing and deforestation.
Advanced Climate Monitoring and Modeling: More precise climate models need to be developed to accurately project the behavior of positive feedback loops. Collaboration with global institutions like NASA, NOAA, and the IPCC is essential to coordinate efforts.
Global Awareness and Mass Mobilization: A global climate awareness campaign must be intensified, mobilizing the public to demand more ambitious and rapid mitigation and adaptation policies.

Conclusion

If immediate action is not taken, the exceeding of the 2°C to 3°C threshold will trigger a series of irreversible feedback loops that could lead to an abrupt temperature jump to levels between 6°C and 8°C. The consequences will be devastating, including ecosystem collapse, loss of coastal lands, and global geopolitical destabilization. The time to act is running out, and the actions we take in the next 5 to 10 years will be decisive in preventing an irreversible climate catastrophe.

The time window to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is closing rapidly, and the critical tipping point may occur much sooner than expected, between 2025 and 2027. If we exceed that threshold, we could see accelerated global warming with an average temperature increase between 2°C and 3°C by 2028, which would be catastrophic for polar ecosystems, ocean stability, and carbon and methane deposits.

Prediction: Polar Ice Melt and Oceans Becoming Carbon Emitters

Accelerated Polar Ice Melt: Greenland: From 2025, Greenland’s ice melt will increase geometrically. In a scenario with a 2°C to 3°C rise, the melting rate could double or triple. In 2012, an extreme melting event affected 97% of Greenland’s surface in just four days, showing the vulnerability of ice sheets to temperature spikes. As Arctic temperatures exceed 3°C (possibly by 2028), Greenland’s melt will become massive, resulting in the loss of several cubic meters of ice annually and significantly contributing to sea-level rise. Antarctica: The melting of Antarctica could also accelerate starting in 2025. West Antarctica, in particular, is extremely vulnerable, and the collapse of ice shelves like the Thwaites Glacier could destabilize the entire region. This would release massive amounts of water into the ocean, raising sea levels by several meters in a few decades. The collapse of Thwaites and other glaciers is expected to accelerate from 2025-2027.
Positive Feedback Loops: Methane from permafrost and clathrates: Methane release from Arctic permafrost and subsea methane clathrate deposits in marine sediments, especially in the Arctic, will intensify beyond the 2°C threshold. Methane hydrate releases could trigger an explosive climate feedback loop, where methane contributes to rapid global temperature increases, further accelerating ice melt and climate instability. Permafrost: Currently, Arctic permafrost is estimated to contain about 1,500 gigatons of carbon, and a fraction of this, in the form of methane, could be released if the permafrost thaws rapidly. Projections suggest that 50% of surface permafrost could thaw by 2050 if immediate measures are not taken.
Oceans Becoming Carbon Emitters: Shift in ocean function: If ocean temperatures rise significantly, oceans, which currently act as carbon sinks by absorbing about 50% of human-emitted CO₂, could become net carbon emitters. Rising ocean temperatures reduce the oceans’ capacity to absorb CO₂. It is estimated that this critical threshold would be crossed if average ocean water temperature rises by more than 1.5°C – 2°C. In such a scenario, carbon stored in the oceans could be released into the atmosphere instead of being absorbed, increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and accelerating global warming. Destabilization of submarine carbon deposits: Submarine carbon and methane deposits, which remain stable under cold, high-pressure conditions, will become unstable as the oceans warm. This could trigger a massive release of greenhouse gases in the Arctic and other hotspots. This process could be explosive and contribute to sudden temperature increases of several degrees.
Speed of Irreversible Feedback: As global temperatures exceed 2°C and approach 3°C, positive feedback loops (permafrost, methane clathrates, albedo reduction) will activate at an accelerated and likely uncontrollable rate. By 2028, these feedbacks will likely be fully triggered, potentially leading to a thermal jump of up to 6°C to 8°C in polar regions and a broader global temperature increase of between 3°C and 4°C. Exponential ice melt: The pace of ice melt in both poles, under this scenario, will be exponential. Glaciers and ice shelves in Greenland and West Antarctica could disintegrate in decades, not centuries, resulting in a sea-level rise of up to 2-3 meters by 2050.

Global Consequences and Impact Prediction

Sea-level rise: If polar ice melt continues to accelerate, we are likely to see a sea-level rise of between 1 to 3 meters by 2050, displacing hundreds of millions of people living in coastal areas.
More frequent and severe climate disasters: With a global temperature rise between 3°C and 4°C and higher in the poles, extreme weather events like hurricanes, wildfires, and heatwaves will become much more frequent and devastating. Projections indicate that these events could become annual phenomena in many regions.
Ecosystem collapse: Arctic ecosystems, and other vulnerable ecosystems like coral reefs and rainforests, will collapse due to rising temperatures and changing environmental conditions. This will not only destroy habitats but also reduce the planet’s ability to absorb carbon, exacerbating global warming.
Geopolitical instability and humanitarian crisis: As sea levels rise and climate disasters intensify, mass migrations will increase, creating geopolitical instability in many regions. The scarcity of water and food due to the destruction of farmland will be one of the greatest threats to global stability.

Immediate Action Plan

Given the severity of these scenarios and the speed at which they could develop, a drastic and immediate change in our global policies and actions is required. Some key recommendations include:

Urgent and drastic emissions reductions: We cannot wait until 2030 to reduce emissions. We must accelerate the transition to a net-zero emissions model before 2025. This requires global policies to halt fossil fuel use and promote renewable energy on a large scale.
Development and implementation of geoengineering technologies: In the short term, geoengineering technologies such as stratospheric aerosol injection may be necessary to temporarily cool the planet while the climate stabilizes.
Advanced climate modeling and monitoring: Climate models that include all positive and negative feedbacks must be developed and funded. This includes monitoring systems for methane releases in the Arctic and the behavior of subsea clathrates.
Global awareness and mobilization campaigns: The global population needs to be made aware of the seriousness of the situation. Global campaigns must be conducted to mobilize civil society, businesses, and governments toward a joint effort to mitigate climate effects.
Protection of natural carbon sinks: Preserving and restoring forests, wetlands, and marine ecosystems is essential to maintaining the planet’s ability to absorb carbon. This should also include efforts to protect permafrost and Arctic ecosystems.

In conclusion, the critical 2°C threshold has already been exceeded, and if we do not act quickly, the world could face a temperature increase of 6°C to 8°C in the coming decades, leading to irreversible climate collapse. Positive feedback loops will accelerate as global warming intensifies, and we must take immediate action to avoid the worst of these scenarios.

Probability of exceeding 2°C

The calculated average probabilities for exceeding critical temperature thresholds between 2025 and 2030 are as follows:

Probability of exceeding 2°C: Approximately 79%
Probability of exceeding 3°C: Approximately 45%

These values suggest a high likelihood of breaching the 2°C threshold within the specified timeframe, with a significant chance (almost 50%) of reaching 3°C if positive feedback loops are triggered and emissions continue at current or increased levels. Immediate action is required to mitigate these risks

Analysis of UN Targets and Immediate Action Proposal

In light of the data presented, it is evident that the UN’s goals to reduce carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 and achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 are insufficient to halt the accelerated pace of climate change. The probability of surpassing 2°C of global temperature rise before 2030 is approximately 79%, with a significant risk (45%) of reaching 3°C, which would trigger positive feedback loops and could lead to an uncontrollable climate spiral.

1. Current UN Targets: Insufficient Against Climate Acceleration

The UN targets, though ambitious in theory, are not aligned with the urgency of the current climate situation. Surpassing 2°C would trigger feedback loops that amplify warming, such as the melting of permafrost and the release of large amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas much more potent than CO₂. This would increase the risk that the oceans, which currently act as carbon sinks, could become net emitters of CO₂ and methane.

Key issues with UN targets:

Time delay: The UN goals are projected for 2030 and 2050, while the critical tipping point could occur between 2025 and 2027. This means current policies would arrive too late.
Inability to prevent positive feedback: The goal of reducing emissions by only 45% by 2030 would not be sufficient to prevent runaway feedback cycles, such as the melting of permafrost and methane clathrates.
Gradual approach instead of urgent action: Current policies lack the speed and scalability needed to avoid an imminent climate crisis.

2. Emergency Proposal: Global Energy Consumption Reduction and Achieve Zero Emissions in Four Years

To mitigate this imminent danger, I propose a much more drastic and accelerated action than the UN’s plan:

Global energy consumption reduction by 50% in four years: This measure would significantly reduce fossil fuel demand, minimizing CO₂ emissions. It must be applied progressively and phased, implementing energy efficiency policies, reducing non-essential industrial activity, and promoting renewable energies.

Specific actions:

Reduction of fossil fuel use in sectors such as aviation, transportation, and manufacturing.
Incentivizing the transition to clean technologies in solar, wind, and nuclear energy.
Implementing strict energy efficiency policies across all sectors.
Zero emissions in four years: This goal would require the total elimination of fossil fuels by 2028. This can be achieved through accelerated investments in carbon capture technologies and the massive adoption of renewable energy, along with strict restrictions on the use of oil, coal, and gas.

Key steps:

Massive electrification of all sectors, including transport, industry, and buildings.
Accelerated deployment of infrastructure for renewable energy.
Immediate development and deployment of large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies.

3. SCOPEX Project: Geoengineering as a Temporary Measure

The SCOPEX Project, which consists of geoengineering to reflect solar radiation and reduce global temperatures, should be implemented immediately as an emergency temporary measure. This could buy time while energy reduction and zero-emission policies are implemented.

Risks and benefits:

Benefit: SCOPEX can quickly reduce global temperatures by up to 1.5°C, delaying catastrophic climate impacts and providing a buffer for implementing zero-emission policies.
Risk: Geoengineering has unknown long-term implications and must be applied with great caution. However, given the severity of the situation, it is an option that should be urgently explored.

4. Optimization and Evaluation of the Proposal

Optimization:

Just transition: The implementation of energy reduction must consider its effects on the population, creating jobs in clean energy and protection programs for those most affected by the transition.
International support: This transition must be a globally coordinated effort, with participation from major carbon emitters and support for developing countries to adopt clean energy.
Constant scientific monitoring: More advanced climate models must be developed to monitor the effects of these measures and adjust them in real-time.

Evaluation:

Effectiveness: A 50% global energy consumption reduction and SCOPEX implementation could, in theory, prevent the 2°C threshold and delay the acceleration of climate change. Achieving zero emissions in four years is ambitious, but it is the only viable option to avoid catastrophic feedback loops.
Feasibility: Though implementation would be extremely challenging, the technical feasibility exists, especially if governments and private institutions massively invest in renewable energies and carbon capture technologies.

5. Conclusion

The situation is critical, and time is extremely limited. The UN targets are insufficient to avoid the imminent climate disaster. To halt the acceleration of global warming and prevent the oceans from becoming carbon emitters, an emergency plan must be implemented immediately, including:

A 50% reduction in global energy consumption within four years.
A transition to zero carbon emissions by 2028.
Urgent implementation of the SCOPEX Project as a temporary measure.
Massive investments in renewable energies and carbon capture technologies.

If these drastic measures are not taken, the probability of reaching a global temperature rise between 3°C and 6°C is alarmingly high, with devastating consequences for ecosystems and humanity. The time to prevent a planetary catastrophe is rapidly running out.

EcoBuddha Maitreya, World Leader in the Fight Against Global Warming Global Warming Fight – Global Coordination Center

A Better World, Now Possible!

EcoBuddha Maitreya

"EcoBuddha Maitreya | Yoga Master & NeuroYoga 2009 Creator – Official Global Site"