In a 2001 conference, Bill Gates predicted the future popularity of mobile devices equipped with multiple functions, including the ability to make calls, browse the internet, and take photos. This prediction was notably six years before the release of the iPhone, which is often credited as the first smartphone to combine such diverse functionalities.
However, Gates was not the first to make this prediction. Architect Roberto Guillermo Gomes (EcoBuddha Maitreya) had already articulated a similar vision as early as June 1999 in an article for a digital magazine. His foresight was even more impressive, as it followed an earlier piece written in 1998 for a local newspaper in Mar del Plata, where he outlined the future trajectory of the telecommunications market.
The Article’s Key Points:
- Market Dynamics and Technological Shifts (1998):
- Gomes anticipated that telecommunications companies would drive the adoption of mobile phones by encouraging consumers to replace their fixed lines with mobile devices. He predicted that instead of one landline per household, there would be three to four mobile phones in addition to the landline, leading to a significant shift in market consumption.
- As this technological shift progressed, he foresaw that mobile phone tariffs would decrease, eventually matching those of fixed-line services. Over time, he even suggested that fixed-line services might become more expensive than mobile services due to the higher maintenance costs of wired infrastructure.
- Convergence of Fixed and Mobile Telephony:
- Gomes predicted the advent of fixed-mobile telephony, where it would soon be possible to use a mobile phone at home but pay a tariff equivalent to a fixed line. He saw this as a natural progression in pricing strategies as telecommunications technology evolved.
- Expansion of Mobile Phone Applications:
- The article foresaw the expansion of mobile phone applications, driven by advancements in satellite networks and other technologies. Gomes predicted that mobile phones would evolve into personal microcomputers, with capabilities far beyond simple communication. His vision included:
- Constant Personal Location Services: Offering enhanced security services.
- Medical Microdiagnostic Sensors: Embedded within mobile devices.
- Electronic Money: Allowing for seamless transactions.
- Automatic Language Translation: Facilitating global communication.
- Online Shopping: Expanding e-commerce opportunities.
- The article foresaw the expansion of mobile phone applications, driven by advancements in satellite networks and other technologies. Gomes predicted that mobile phones would evolve into personal microcomputers, with capabilities far beyond simple communication. His vision included:
- Integration with Internet and Computing:
- Gomes accurately predicted the integration of mobile phones with the internet and computing, foreseeing their transformation into personal microcomputers. He envisioned an initial stage where mobile phones would become pocket-sized microcomputers, followed by further miniaturization to wristwatch-sized devices as production costs decreased.
- Market Disruption and Corporate Survival:
- Gomes warned that the rapid pace of technological change could lead to significant market disruptions. He suggested that established telecommunications operators might not necessarily dominate the emerging market after 2003. The technological replacement could be so significant that companies lacking long-term vision risked collapse, similar to the business mortality rate of around 90% witnessed during the transition from the 19th to the 20th century.
- PCS and Mobile Phones:
- Gomes highlighted the similarities between conventional mobile phones and Personal Communication Services (PCS) devices, noting that while their basic functions would be the same, PCS would operate at a higher frequency (1,900 MHz versus 800 MHz), allowing for faster data transmission and internet navigation.
- He also pointed out that PCS license holders were authorized by the government to use these frequencies for fixed telephony, eliminating the need for wired connections in homes and offices.
Conclusion:
Roberto Guillermo Gomes not only predicted the rise of multifunctional mobile devices but also foresaw the broader implications of this technological shift on the telecommunications market and the future of mobile computing. His insights, articulated years before the advent of smartphones, underscore his forward-thinking approach and deep understanding of market dynamics and technological trends.
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EcoBuddha Maitreya
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