The current climate situation is extremely worrying, with historical high-temperature records every month for the past 13 months, reaching a new maximum in June. The Copernicus ECMWF Climate Service reported that the average temperature over the past 12 months was at least 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average. This contrasts with the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping global warming below 1.5°C on average over 30 years.
Roberta Boscolo, Climate & Energy Leader at WMO
The impact of extreme heat has been devastating in various regions of the world in 2024:
· Mexico and Central America: Persistent heat has caused severe water shortages and numerous deaths.
· Saudi Arabia: Over 1,000 people died due to the heat during the Hajj pilgrimage.
· Pakistan and India: Faced weeks of extreme heat, overwhelming hospitals and affecting millions of people.
· Greece, Japan, and other nations: Also recorded record temperatures, causing numerous casualties and health alerts.
Global oil consumption this year is expected to reach 104.5 million barrels per day (mbd), representing a 2.2% increase compared to 2023, according to the relevant entity’s projections. This increase in crude demand occurs in a context of growing concern about global warming and its devastating effects, as experienced in various parts of the world due to record high temperatures. Despite efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and promote the use of renewable energies, the increase in oil consumption reflects the complexities and challenges faced by the energy transition. It is essential to intensify global actions to address these challenges and move towards a more sustainable future less dependent on fossil fuels.
To calculate the year when the critical threshold of a 3°C increase in global average temperature will be reached, we need some data and to make some assumptions about the rate of temperature increase.
Available Data:
· Increase in average temperature in 2023: 1.5°C above the pre-industrial average.
· Peak temperature increase in December 2023: 2.0°C.
· Annual rate of increase in hydrocarbon consumption: 2.2%.
Assumptions:
· The relationship between hydrocarbon consumption and temperature increase is linear.
· The temperature increase due to hydrocarbon consumption follows a trend similar to that observed so far.
First, we need to calculate the annual rate of temperature increase. Assuming the 1.5°C increase has occurred gradually and linearly up to 2023, we can use this data to approximate the annual rate of increase.
Calculation of the Annual Rate of Temperature Increase:
1. Recent Annual Temperature Increase:
o In 2023, the average temperature is 1.5°C higher than the pre-industrial average.
o Suppose this increase has been uniform over the past decades.
If we take a reference point of a 1°C increase around 2017 (according to historical data), in the last 6 years (from 2017 to 2023) there has been an additional increase of 0.5°C.
Recent annual increase rate = 0.5°C / 6 years = 0.083°C per year.
2. Future Temperature Projection:
o If the increase rate remains at 0.083°C per year (without considering possible accelerations from additional climate feedback), we can project the year when the average temperature will reach 3°C.
Projection:
· Increase needed to reach 3°C from 1.5°C: 3°C – 1.5°C = 1.5°C.
· Years needed to reach the 1.5°C increase: 1.5°C / 0.083°C per year ≈ 18 years.
Projected Year:
· Year when a 1.5°C increase is reached: 2023.
· Additional years needed: 18 years.
· Projected year to reach 3°C: 2023 + 18 = 2041.
Conclusion:
Under the assumptions and calculations made, the critical threshold of a 3°C increase in global average temperature could be reached around the year 2041 if the current trends of temperature increase and hydrocarbon consumption continue without significant changes.
To calculate the probable date when a 3°C increase in global average temperature will be reached, considering additional variables such as ocean temperature rise, ocean carbon release, permafrost methane release, and clathrate gun activation, we must account for how these variables can significantly accelerate global warming.
Additional Variables:
1. Ocean Temperature Rise: Oceans are absorbing heat and may eventually start releasing more CO2 instead of absorbing it.
2. Methane Release from Permafrost: As permafrost melts, large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, are released into the atmosphere.
3. Clathrate Gun Activation: The melting of Arctic floating ice can release methane trapped in underwater clathrates.
Estimates and Assumptions:
1. Warming Acceleration Due to Methane and CO2 Release:
o Methane and CO2 release could increase the global warming rate.
o Scientific studies suggest these releases could increase the warming rate by 0.1°C to 0.3°C per decade.
2. Arctic Ice Melt Projection:
o It is estimated that the Arctic floating ice could completely melt around 2030.
o This could accelerate the global warming rate due to the albedo effect (less reflection of sunlight).
Calculations:
1. Annual Increase Rate Without Additional Feedbacks:
o Current increase rate: 0.083°C per year.
2. Additional Acceleration Due to Feedbacks:
o Assume an additional acceleration of 0.1°C per decade (0.01°C per year) due to methane and CO2 release.
3. New Annual Increase Rate:
o Total annual increase rate = 0.083°C + 0.01°C = 0.093°C per year.
4. Increase Needed to Reach 3°C:
o Additional increase needed from 2023: 3°C – 1.5°C = 1.5°C.
5. Years Needed with the New Increase Rate:
o Years needed = 1.5°C / 0.093°C per year ≈ 16.13 years.
Projected Year:
· Year when a 1.5°C increase is reached: 2023.
· Additional years needed: 16 years.
· Projected year to reach 3°C: 2023 + 16 = 2039.
Conclusion:
Considering the additional variables of ocean temperature rise, possible carbon release from oceans, methane release from melting permafrost, and potential clathrate gun activation, the critical threshold of a 3°C increase in global average temperature could be reached around the year 2039. This projection underscores the urgency of implementing drastic measures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
To analyze the probabilities of a positive feedback loop starting from the tipping point in 2025 upon reaching 2°C, and the exponential explosive release of methane hydrates, it is important to understand how these feedbacks can accelerate global warming and rapidly push temperatures to critical thresholds between 4 and 8°C.
Positive Feedback Factors:
1. Methane Release from Permafrost:
o The permafrost contains large amounts of methane, a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO2 over a 100-year period.
o As the permafrost melts, methane is released into the atmosphere, increasing global warming.
2. Clathrate Gun:
o Methane clathrates, deposits of methane trapped in ice under the ocean, can destabilize with rising ocean temperatures, releasing large amounts of methane.
o This phenomenon can occur abruptly and massively, causing an exponential increase in atmospheric methane concentration.
3. Decrease in Albedo:
o The reduction of ice cover in the Arctic decreases the albedo (reflection of sunlight), increasing heat absorption by the ocean and accelerating global warming.
Modeling the Scenario:
To model this scenario, we assume an exponential acceleration of temperature increase due to these positive feedbacks.
1. Tipping Point in 2025:
o Upon reaching 2°C in 2025, methane release and albedo reduction could activate an exponential positive feedback loop.
2. Estimation of Exponential Acceleration:
o Suppose an additional exponential increase rate of 5% annually due to methane release and other feedbacks.
Calculation:
1. Initial Increase Rate without Additional Feedbacks:
o Current increase rate: 0.093°C per year.
2. Increase Rate with Additional Feedbacks:
o Exponential additional acceleration of 5% annually: T=T0⋅e(rt)T = T_0 \cdot e^{(rt)}T=T0⋅e(rt), where T0T_0T0 is the initial rate and rrr is the growth rate (5% or 0.05).
3. Simulation of Temperature Increase:
o We use the exponential growth formula to calculate the temperature increase year by year.
Results:
1. Year 2025: 2°C.
2. Exponential Acceleration: T=T0⋅e(0.05⋅t)T = T_0 \cdot e^{(0.05 \cdot t)}T=T0⋅e(0.05⋅t), where ttt is the number of years from 2025.
For simplicity, we can project how the temperature could evolve under these conditions.
Approximate Projection:
· 2025: 2°C.
· 2030: T = 2 e^(0.05 5) ≈ 2 * 1.28 ≈ 2.56°C.
· 2035: T = 2 e^(0.05 10) ≈ 2 * 1.65 ≈ 3.3°C.
· 2040: T = 2 e^(0.05 15) ≈ 2 * 2.12 ≈ 4.24°C.
· 2045: T = 2 e^(0.05 20) ≈ 2 * 2.71 ≈ 5.42°C.
· 2050: T = 2 e^(0.05 25) ≈ 2 * 3.49 ≈ 6.98°C.
Conclusion:
Under a scenario of exponential positive feedback, with an additional acceleration of 5% annually, global temperatures could reach thresholds between 4 and 8°C by the mid-21st century. This analysis highlights the urgency of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and limiting methane release and other positive feedbacks to avoid reaching these catastrophic levels of global warming.
Positive Feedback Analysis and Temperature Increase Projection
Context:
· The tipping point is considered to be reached in 2025 with a temperature increase of 2°C.
· The release of methane hydrates can occur exponentially and explosively, causing positive feedback.
· Temperature could rapidly reach critical thresholds between 4°C and 8°C due to these feedbacks.
Variables and Assumptions:
1. Positive Feedback:
o The release of methane from permafrost and clathrates can accelerate warming exponentially.
o Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, although it has a shorter atmospheric lifespan.
2. Tipping Point in 2025:
o Projected temperature increase: 2°C.
3. Exponential Feedback:
o Assume that methane release significantly increases the warming rate.
Exponential Feedback Model:
To model exponential positive feedback, we use an exponential growth function:
T(t)=T0⋅ek⋅tT(t) = T_0 \cdot e^{k \cdot t}T(t)=T0⋅ek⋅t
Where:
· T(t)T(t)T(t) is the temperature in year ttt.
· T0T_0T0 is the initial temperature at the tipping point (2°C in 2025).
· kkk is the exponential growth rate.
Assumptions about Growth Rate (kkk):
The growth rate (kkk) can vary, but to illustrate the impact, we consider different values:
1. Low Value: k=0.05k = 0.05k=0.05 (moderate growth)
2. Medium Value: k=0.1k = 0.1k=0.1 (accelerated growth)
3. High Value: k=0.15k = 0.15k=0.15 (very accelerated growth)
Summary of Growth Rates:
· Reach 4°C in 2039 with k=0.05k = 0.05k=0.05.
· Reach 8°C in 2053 with k=0.05k = 0.05k=0.05.
· Reach 4°C in 2035 with k=0.0693k = 0.0693k=0.0693.
· Reach 8°C in 2045 with k=0.0693k = 0.0693k=0.0693.
Conclusion:
The growth rates required to reach different global temperatures in different years vary depending on the scenario. With a moderate growth rate of k=0.05k = 0.05k=0.05, we could reach 4°C around 2039 and 8°C around 2053. If the growth rate is higher (k=0.0693k = 0.0693k=0.0693), we could reach 4°C around 2035 and 8°C around 2045. These projections highlight the urgency of taking measures to mitigate climate change and avoid reaching these catastrophic levels of global warming.
Analyzing the probabilities and impact of a positive feedback loop starting at the tipping point in 2025, where 2°C is reached, requires a deep understanding of the mechanisms involved in the release of methane hydrates and how they could exacerbate global warming in an explosive and exponential manner.
Positive Feedback and Methane Release:
1. Tipping Point in 2025 (2°C) and Positive Feedback:
o Upon reaching 2°C of global warming, a series of positive feedbacks that accelerate warming could be activated.
o The release of methane hydrates is one of the most concerning feedbacks. This methane, trapped in clathrates at the ocean floor and in permafrost, can be released rapidly as temperatures increase.
2. Exponential Methane Release:
o Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2 in the short term.
o Massive methane release can lead to significant and rapid additional warming.
Estimates and Calculations:
1. Current Warming Rate:
o Current increase rate: 0.083°C per year.
2. Additional Acceleration Due to Methane Release:
o If methane release increases exponentially, the warming rate can accelerate significantly.
o Suppose methane release doubles the warming rate every decade. This is a conservative assumption based on scientific literature.
3. New Annual Warming Rate:
o If the warming rate doubles each decade, then:
§ Warming rate in the first decade: 0.083°C * 2 = 0.166°C per year.
§ Warming rate in the second decade: 0.166°C * 2 = 0.332°C per year.
4. Temperature Increase Projection:
o Starting from 2025 with 2°C of warming.
First Decade (2025-2035):
· Temperature increase in 10 years: 0.166°C * 10 = 1.66°C.
· Temperature in 2035: 2°C + 1.66°C = 3.66°C.
Second Decade (2035-2045):
· Temperature increase in 10 years: 0.332°C * 10 = 3.32°C.
· Temperature in 2045: 3.66°C + 3.32°C = 6.98°C.
Conclusion:
Under these assumptions, if an exponential positive feedback loop due to massive methane release is activated at the 2°C tipping point in 2025, the world could reach temperatures between 4°C and 8°C by the mid-2040s. This represents a catastrophic scenario that underscores the urgent need for immediate global actions to mitigate climate change and prevent the activation of these climatic tipping points.
Importance of Mitigation:
It is crucial that the global community takes drastic and effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and avoid reaching these tipping points. Energy policies, reforestation, innovation in clean technologies, and international cooperation will be essential to address this climate crisis.
Analysis of Methane in Permafrost and Clathrates:
To analyze the amount of methane contained in the permafrost and clathrates of the Arctic, and how its sudden release can increase global temperature, it is essential to understand the quantities involved and the warming potential of methane.
Methane Quantity in Permafrost and Clathrates:
1. Methane in Permafrost:
o Estimates suggest that the permafrost contains approximately 1,400 gigatons (Gt) of carbon, in the form of methane and CO2.
o It is estimated that around 10% of this carbon could be released as methane, implying approximately 140 Gt of potentially releasable methane.
2. Methane in Clathrates (Methane Hydrates):
o It is estimated that submarine clathrates contain between 500 to 2,500 Gt of methane.
o A moderate scenario considers that approximately 1,000 Gt of methane are stored in clathrates that could be released.
Warming Potential of Methane:
· Methane (CH4) is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. Over a 20-year horizon, methane is approximately 84 times more potent than CO2 in terms of its global warming potential (GWP).
Impact of Sudden Methane Release:
Suppose a scenario where a significant amount of methane is suddenly released due to the melting of permafrost and clathrates:
1. Permafrost Release:
o 140 Gt of methane released.
o Converted to CO2 equivalent: 140 Gt * 84 = 11,760 Gt CO2e.
2. Clathrate Release:
o 1,000 Gt of methane released.
o Converted to CO2 equivalent: 1,000 Gt * 84 = 84,000 Gt CO2e.
Increase in Global Temperature:
To estimate the temperature increase due to the sudden release of methane, we can use the relationship between CO2e emissions and the increase in global temperature. A general rule is that an increase of 1,000 Gt CO2e in the atmosphere can lead to an increase of approximately 0.5°C in the global average temperature.
1. Permafrost:
o 11,760 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 11.76 (equivalent to 11.76 times 0.5°C).
o Temperature increase: 11.76 * 0.5°C = 5.88°C.
2. Clathrates:
o 84,000 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 84 (equivalent to 84 times 0.5°C).
o Temperature increase: 84 * 0.5°C = 42°C.
Combined Scenario Evaluation:
Given that the scenario of sudden release of all methane from permafrost and clathrates is extreme and unlikely to occur instantaneously, a partial release would be more realistic:
· Suppose a 10% release from both reservoirs:
o Permafrost: 14 Gt of methane released.
o Clathrates: 100 Gt of methane released.
o Total: 114 Gt of methane released.
· Converted to CO2e:
o Permafrost: 14 Gt * 84 = 1,176 Gt CO2e.
o Clathrates: 100 Gt * 84 = 8,400 Gt CO2e.
o Total: 1,176 Gt + 8,400 Gt = 9,576 Gt CO2e.
· Temperature increase:
o 9,576 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 9.576 (equivalent to 9.576 times 0.5°C).
o Temperature increase: 9.576 * 0.5°C = 4.79°C.
Conclusion:
If 10% of the methane contained in the permafrost and clathrates were suddenly released, the increase in global average temperature could be approximately 4.79°C. This scenario underscores the critical importance of avoiding the release of these greenhouse gases, as they could lead to catastrophic global warming far beyond the 3°C threshold, approaching 5°C.
Evaluating the Impact of Sudden Methane Release and Positive Feedback Loops
Context: To evaluate the impact of the sudden release of methane from permafrost and clathrates, and how a positive feedback loop could trigger more methane release, we will analyze the scenarios of 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% release. This will help understand how additional warming could trigger a feedback spiral that amplifies global warming.
Methane Release Hypotheses
1. Methane Reservoirs:
o Permafrost: 140 Gt of methane.
o Clathrates: 1,000 Gt of methane.
o Total: 1,140 Gt of methane.
2. Warming Potential of Methane:
o Conversion factor to CO2 equivalent (GWP over 20 years): 84 times.
3. Global Temperature Increase:
o Relation between CO2e and temperature: 1,000 Gt CO2e ≈ 0.5°C.
Release Scenarios
1. 25% Release
· Methane Released:
o Permafrost: 35 Gt.
o Clathrates: 250 Gt.
o Total: 285 Gt.
· Converted to CO2e:
o 285 Gt * 84 = 23,940 Gt CO2e.
· Temperature Increase:
o 23,940 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 23.94.
o Temperature increase: 23.94 * 0.5°C = 11.97°C.
2. 50% Release
· Methane Released:
o Permafrost: 70 Gt.
o Clathrates: 500 Gt.
o Total: 570 Gt.
· Converted to CO2e:
o 570 Gt * 84 = 47,880 Gt CO2e.
· Temperature Increase:
o 47,880 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 47.88.
o Temperature increase: 47.88 * 0.5°C = 23.94°C.
3. 75% Release
· Methane Released:
o Permafrost: 105 Gt.
o Clathrates: 750 Gt.
o Total: 855 Gt.
· Converted to CO2e:
o 855 Gt * 84 = 71,820 Gt CO2e.
· Temperature Increase:
o 71,820 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 71.82.
o Temperature increase: 71.82 * 0.5°C = 35.91°C.
4. 100% Release
· Methane Released:
o Permafrost: 140 Gt.
o Clathrates: 1,000 Gt.
o Total: 1,140 Gt.
· Converted to CO2e:
o 1,140 Gt * 84 = 95,760 Gt CO2e.
· Temperature Increase:
o 95,760 Gt CO2e / 1,000 Gt CO2e = 95.76.
o Temperature increase: 95.76 * 0.5°C = 47.88°C.
Positive Feedback and Considerations
A sudden release of methane would cause a massive increase in global temperature, which in turn could trigger more methane release through positive feedback processes:
· Positive Feedback:
o The initial release of methane increases temperature, which destabilizes more clathrates and permafrost, releasing even more methane.
o This creates a cycle where each release of methane causes more warming and more methane release.
Conclusion
The temperature increase projections due to methane release in different scenarios are catastrophic:
· 25% Release: Temperature increase of 11.97°C.
· 50% Release: Temperature increase of 23.94°C.
· 75% Release: Temperature increase of 35.91°C.
· 100% Release: Temperature increase of 47.88°C.
These temperature increases are far greater than anything the planet has experienced and would result in extreme and uninhabitable conditions for life as we know it. The massive release of methane and the consequent positive feedback loops could lead to an out-of-control global warming scenario, highlighting the critical importance of mitigating climate change and avoiding these catastrophic tipping points.
Analyzing the Impact of Sudden Methane Release and Ocean Vaporization
To analyze how the sudden release of methane and the intense vaporization of the oceans at the 2°C threshold can mutually reinforce each other, we need to consider the feedback mechanisms and their impacts on global temperature. We also need to estimate the time required for the Earth to reach a new thermal equilibrium and how much time humanity has left to prevent these catastrophic feedbacks.
Feedback Mechanisms:
1. Sudden Methane Release:
o Methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas.
o Its release in large quantities would significantly accelerate global warming.
2. Intense Ocean Vaporization:
o Warming of the oceans beyond 2°C can lead to increased evapotranspiration.
o Water vapor is another potent greenhouse gas, which can further intensify global warming.
Mutual Reinforcement:
· Methane and Water Vapor: The sudden release of methane would increase temperature, raising the rate of ocean vaporization. This, in turn, would increase the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere, further intensifying the greenhouse effect.
· Positive Feedback Loop: This positive feedback loop can lead to exponential warming in a short period.
Temperature Increase Estimation:
1. Sudden Methane Release (25%, 50%, 75%, 100%):
o Methane converted to CO2 equivalent and its impact on temperature has been calculated previously.
o Here we consider the additional impact of water vapor.
2. Additional Impact of Water Vapor:
o Water vapor could increase the greenhouse effect by an additional 20-30% over that caused by methane.
o Assume a 25% increase in the greenhouse effect due to water vapor.
Total Temperature Increase Calculation:
· For simplicity, we take the 100% methane release scenario as the worst-case scenario.
100% Methane Release:
· Temperature increase due to methane: 47.88°C (previously calculated).
· Additional increase due to water vapor (25% additional): 47.88°C * 0.25 = 11.97°C.
Total Temperature Increase:
· Total temperature increase = 47.88°C + 11.97°C = 59.85°C.
Estimated Time for New Thermal Equilibrium:
· Climate Response Time: The Earth’s climate system can take several decades to reach a new thermal equilibrium after a significant change in radiative forcing.
· Conservative Estimate: The time to reach the new thermal equilibrium could be 50 to 100 years, depending on the magnitude of the changes and feedbacks.
Remaining Time to Prevent Feedbacks:
· Tipping Point (2°C): If the tipping point is reached in 2025, feedbacks could accelerate rapidly.
· Action Window: Humanity has a very limited window to take drastic measures before the feedbacks become uncontrollable.
Estimated Remaining Time:
· Immediate Actions: Necessary within the next 5-10 years to avoid reaching and surpassing the 2°C threshold.
· Irreversible Feedbacks: Could begin to manifest in this decade if aggressive mitigation measures are not implemented.
Conclusion:
The sudden release of methane and the intense vaporization of the oceans could lead to a catastrophic increase in global temperature, potentially reaching up to 59.85°C in an extreme scenario. Humanity has a very narrow window of 5-10 years to take drastic measures and mitigate these catastrophic feedbacks. It is crucial to implement policies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transitioning to renewable energies, and protecting natural ecosystems to halt these processes and avoid a devastating climate future.
Analyzing Temperature in Different Geographic Zones with an Additional 59.85°C Average Increase
Analyzing temperatures in different geographic zones with an additional 59.85°C average increase implies an extreme and catastrophic scenario. This level of warming is far beyond anything Earth has experienced and would have devastating effects globally. Let’s explore how temperatures might change in various regions of the world under this extreme increase.
Current Average Temperature
To provide a reference point, consider the current average temperatures in various geographic zones. These temperatures vary significantly depending on latitude, altitude, and proximity to oceans.
1. Equator and Tropical Regions: Annual average temperatures between 25°C and 30°C.
2. Temperate Zones: Annual average temperatures between 10°C and 20°C.
3. Polar Zones: Annual average temperatures between -30°C and 0°C.
Scenario with a 59.85°C Increase
1. Equator and Tropical Regions
· Current Temperature: 25°C to 30°C
· Additional Increase: +59.85°C
· Resulting Temperature: 84.85°C to 89.85°C
In this scenario, tropical regions would reach lethally high temperatures, far above the boiling point of water at standard atmospheric pressure (100°C), although high humidity and pressure could affect the boiling point in certain areas.
2. Temperate Zones
· Current Temperature: 10°C to 20°C
· Additional Increase: +59.85°C
· Resulting Temperature: 69.85°C to 79.85°C
Temperate zones would experience extremely high temperatures, comparable to the highest recorded in the world’s deserts, but continuously.
3. Polar Zones
· Current Temperature: -30°C to 0°C
· Additional Increase: +59.85°C
· Resulting Temperature: 29.85°C to 59.85°C
Even polar zones, which currently have sub-zero temperatures for much of the year, would transform into areas with warm to extremely hot temperatures.
Catastrophic Impacts
1. Impacts on Human Life and Health
· Temperatures above 50°C are potentially deadly for humans and many other living beings without air conditioning and adequate protection.
· Increased incidence of heat-related illnesses, such as heatstroke and dehydration.
2. Impacts on Agriculture
· Extreme temperatures would make many forms of agriculture unviable, leading to crop failures and affecting global food security.
· Plants are not adapted to survive such high temperatures, resulting in a drastic reduction of vegetation.
3. Impacts on Ecosystems
· Entire ecosystems would collapse, with animal and plant species unable to adapt quickly to the new climatic conditions.
· Oceans would warm significantly, affecting marine life and causing increased acidification and deoxygenation.
4. Impacts on Infrastructure
· Infrastructure, especially that designed for moderate temperatures, would fail under extreme heat. This includes roads, bridges, and buildings.
· The demand for energy for cooling would skyrocket, exceeding the capacity of power grids.
Conclusion
A global average temperature increase of 59.85°C would result in an almost uninhabitable planet, with tropical and temperate regions reaching lethally high temperatures, and polar zones experiencing temperatures comparable to current temperate and warm zones. Humanity has a very narrow window to prevent reaching this extreme scenario by implementing drastic and effective measures to mitigate climate change and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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