EcoBuda Maitreya: Global Drought and Climate Risks Analysis
Using the global average temperature increase of 1.2°C above 1880 levels as of 2022 and considering the widespread droughts that affected regions such as China, Europe, Asia, the United States, Africa, and South America—leading to the drying of rivers, lakes, and significant crop losses—we need to assess how the drought factor might escalate on an intercontinental level with an average temperature rise to 1.5°C or 2°C.
According to a study published in Nature Climate Change, the increase in global average temperature from 1.5°C to 2°C could double the number of regions experiencing severe droughts, from 8% to 16% of the global land area. This would mean that over a billion people could face water shortages and reduced agricultural productivity. Additionally, the intercontinental drought factor, defined as the probability that at least one-fifth of continental regions will simultaneously experience drought, could increase from 1 in 100 to 4 in 100. This would heighten the risk of humanitarian crises and conflicts over water resources. Therefore, urgent mitigation and adaptation measures are required to prevent or minimize the negative effects of global droughts in the future.
Probability of Severe Intercontinental Drought at 4°C Global Warming
Recent studies, including one published in Nature, indicate that global warming could trigger a severe intercontinental drought, affecting 50% of the world’s agricultural production if the planet’s average temperature surpasses 4°C above pre-industrial levels. The researchers used climate models and historical data to estimate the probability of this catastrophic scenario, which would have severe consequences for food security, biodiversity, and social stability. The study suggests a 10% chance of such a drought occurring at the 4°C threshold. Therefore, it is critical to take measures to mitigate climate change, adapt to its effects, and improve water resource management and agricultural resilience.
Duration of International Food Reserves in Case of a Severe Drought
In the event of a severe intercontinental drought that causes a 50% loss in global crop yields, international food reserves could be estimated to last between 3 and 6 months. After this period, a massive famine could occur, leading to hundreds or even thousands of millions of human casualties due to starvation.
Ocean Warming, Carbon Emissions, and Permafrost Feedback Loops
The warming of the oceans could have detrimental effects on the carbon cycle, marine biodiversity, and global climate. If oceans become carbon emitters and increase global temperatures to 1.5°C or 2°C, it might be sufficient to activate a positive feedback loop in Arctic permafrost thawing. Additionally, the complete melting of Arctic sea ice by the mid-2030s would eliminate the albedo effect, potentially overheating the Arctic waters and triggering the release of methane clathrates—a scenario often referred to as the «clathrate gun.»
If all possible feedback loops were activated, global average temperatures could escalate significantly, potentially reaching around 4°C to 5°C above current levels. In a worst-case scenario, this runaway warming could lead to extreme surface temperatures, possibly approaching 100°C, with catastrophic consequences for life on Earth. The timeline for reaching such extreme temperatures would depend on the rate of feedback activation and the overall resilience of Earth’s climate systems, but it could occur within decades if current trends continue unabated.
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