Taking as parameters the global average temperature of 1.2º C above 1880 in 2022, the global droughts that affected China, Europe; Asia, the United States, Africa and South America, drying up rivers, lakes and causing crop losses, how much can the drought factor increase at an intercontinental level of 1 in 100, with an average temperature of 1.5º to 2º C?
According to a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change, increasing the global average temperature of 1.5º to 2º C could double the number of regions experiencing severe droughts, from 8% to 16% of global land area. This means that more than one billion people could be affected by water shortages and reduced agricultural productivity. The study also indicates that the intercontinental drought factor, defined as the probability that at least one fifth of continental regions will suffer a simultaneous drought, could increase from 1 in 100 to 4 in 100, implying a greater risk of humanitarian crises and conflicts over water resources. Therefore, it is urgent to take mitigation and adaptation measures to avoid or reduce the negative effects of global droughts in the future.
For there to be a 10% chance of a severe intercontinental drought causing the loss of 50% of the world’s crops, what is the average global temperature that global warming would have to reach?
According to a recent study published in the journal Nature, global warming could cause a severe intercontinental drought that would affect 50% of global agricultural production if the planet’s average temperature exceeds 4°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The researchers used climate models and historical data to estimate the probability of this catastrophic scenario occurring, which would have serious consequences for food security, biodiversity and social stability. The result was that there is a 10% chance of a drought of this nature occurring if the 4°C threshold is reached. Therefore, it is urgent to take measures to mitigate climate change and adapt to its effects, as well as to improve the management of water resources and the resilience of agricultural systems.
If a severe intercontinental drought were to occur, causing the loss of 50% of the world’s crops, how long would international food reserves last?
It can be estimated that international food reserves could last between 3 and 6 months. Mass famine and hundreds or billions of human casualties would follow from starvation.
If the warming of the oceans increases and if they become carbon emitters, increasing the temperature by 1.5º or 2º C, would this be enough to activate a positive feedback of the melting of the Arctic permafrost? At the same time, when the floating ice at the North Pole completely thaws in the summers around 2030, will the albedo effect be absent, will this warm up the Arctic waters and could the clathrate rifle be activated? If all possible feedbacks are activated, what final global average temperature can be reached and in how long?
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Ocean warming can have adverse effects on the carbon cycle, marine biodiversity and global climate. Thawing Arctic permafrost can release large amounts of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, which in turn can accelerate climate change. The albedo effect is the ability of white surfaces to reflect solar radiation, which helps cool the planet. If the floating ice at the North Pole disappears, the albedo effect is reduced and the absorption of heat by the dark waters increases. Clathrates are crystalline structures containing methane molecules trapped in frozen water. They are found at the bottom of the oceans and can be unstable to changes in temperature or pressure. If clathrates are released, it could trigger a chain reaction that would further increase global warming. There is no definitive answer to the final global average temperature that could be achieved or the time it would take to reach it, as it depends on many factors and feedbacks that are not yet precisely known. However, some studies estimate that if a critical emissions threshold is exceeded, a “Greenhouse Earth” scenario could be reached with an average temperature of about 4ºC or 5ºC higher than the current one and a sea level of about 10 or 60 meters higher.
Would reaching the critical threshold of “Greenhouse Earth” with 5º or 8º C more global average temperature be enough to activate a process of intense evaporation of oceanic waters and thus the water vapor act as a multiplied greenhouse effect?
or? In that case, how long would the process take, what new probable temperature threshold would be reached at the end?
According to some scientific studies, the critical threshold for “Greenhouse Earth” is between 1.5 and 2 ºC of increase in global average temperature compared to pre-industrial levels. If this threshold is exceeded, positive feedbacks could be triggered that would accelerate global warming and make it irreversible. One of these feedbacks is the evaporation of ocean waters, which would increase the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere, a powerful greenhouse gas. This in turn would raise the temperature even further and cause more evaporation, in a vicious cycle.
It is not known with certainty how long this process would take or what new temperature threshold would be reached in the end, since it depends on many factors and there is a lot of uncertainty in climate models. However, some scenarios project that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not reduced, the average global temperature could increase between 4 and 5 ºC by the end of this century, and between 8 and 10 ºC by the year 2300. These levels of warming would have catastrophic consequences for life on the planet, such as the disappearance of glaciers and poles, rising sea levels, ocean acidification, loss of biodiversity, desertification, droughts, floods, famines and conflicts. Other evaluations predict a gradual warming with a final surface thermoequilibrium around 100º C.
The serious thing about all this is that there is not enough scientific data. That is why I have insisted on the urgency of activating a dynamic holographic AI climate map, loaded with all variables, managed by NASA and counting on the cooperation of all qualified scientists on our planet. We cannot and must not continue blindly. We need to know exactly where we stand and what event horizon awaits us in the coming months and years. We must act immediately, or we may not survive collectively.
EcoBuddha Maitreya, supreme commander of Hiranyaloka, plenipotentiary ambassador to Earth
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